Greetings, The United States: Small business hiring continues to slow, but wage growth remains robust. The Eurozone: Will the RBA’s dovish stance ultimately push the Australian dollar lower? China: Large company sentiment is weakening. Global Developments: Below is the 12-month change in the manufacturing PMI (business activity) by country. Food for Thought: …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 2nd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Business and consumer surveys have diverged. The Eurozone: German retail sales fell in May (second decline in a row). China: China’s overnight rates dipped below 1% (lowest in a decade). The first chart shows the 1-day repo rate (secured financing), and the second chart is the overnight SHIBOR. …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 1st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Corporate confidence has deteriorated. Here is the Vistage CEO Confidence Index. The Eurozone: The euro-area inflation remains relatively soft, which is boosting the probability of the ECB implementing further easing measures. China: China’s financial conditions have been improving this year. Will the GDP follow? Emerging Markets: Real money …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 28th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Corporate confidence continues to deteriorate. The Eurozone: The sharp drop-off in demand from the UK is a headwind for the Eurozone’s economy. China: Spreads have widened for lower-rated bank certificates of deposit. Emerging Markets: Mexico’s trade balance surprised to the upside, with the non-oil component rising sharply …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 27th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Goldman’s US Current Activity Indicator (CAI) continues to deteriorate. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s economic data momentum has been recovering this year. Commodities: Here is what’s driving steel demand in China. The second chart below shows the steel rebar futures in Shanghai. Global Developments: Below is the G10 …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 26th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Goldman’s US Current Activity Indicator (CAI) continues to deteriorate. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s real forward rates (5-year rate, 5-year forward) are now at the lowest level since 2015. Equities: Here are some comments on high-beta stocks from Artisan Partners. Rates: The Fed is expected to buy a …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 25th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The June regional indices as well as the IHS Markit PMI (see chart) point to a further weakening in the ISM Manufacturing PMI (at the national level). Here is Goldman’s manufacturing activity tracker. The Eurozone: Greek sovereign credit default spreads are tightening to fresh multi-year lows. Equities: This …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 24th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: First-time home purchases (as a percentage of the population) remain well below peak levels. The Eurozone: Services continue to support private-sector growth in the Eurozone. Equities: The 2020 earnings growth expectations remain above 10% even as the 2019 forecasts keep falling. Global Developments: Will easier financial conditions …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 21st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: When the Fed preemptively cut rates in the 1990s (as it is expected to do this year), the manufacturing sector was in much worse shape than it is now. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s consumer sentiment continues to soften. Equities: Equity fund outflows are near record levels. Credit: Leveraged loans …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Here is the CPI trajectory for each business cycle since 1879. The Eurozone: According to Natixis, “banks have hardly sold assets (bonds) to the ECB, and therefore, most of the ECB’s [net] asset purchases have been from non-bank economic agents, which fuelled money creation.” Energy: Oil supply/demand balance will …