The Daily Shot Brief – November 21th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The map below shows the changes in year-to-date exports to China relative to 2018.   Europe: Here, we have home price appreciation vs. mortgage lending growth by country.   Asia-Pacific: Hong Kong’s stock market is under pressure again. Despite the uncertainty, mainland China investors have been piling into Hong Kong’s …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 19th, 2019

Greetings,   Equities: US stock market volatility continues to moderate amid signs of investor complacency. –┬áThe S&P 500 daily trading range:   – Speculative accounts are pressing their short VIX bets. (VIX is a measure of the market’s expectations for volatility) Source: @AndreasSteno; Read full article  Additionally, the S&P 500 climbed last week, but the …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 18th, 2019

Greetings,   United States: Last week’s softer economic data sent the Citi Economic Surprise index into negative territory.   Asia-Pacific: According to Natixis, Japanese banks have survived without passing on negative interest rates to their clients. To maintain profitability, they boosted their commissions by selling mutual funds and doubled their share of overseas loans and …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 15th, 2019

Greetings,   Rates: The Fed’s balance sheet normalization (quantitative tightening) lasted about 21 months. Some 40% of this reduction has been reversed in just over two months.   Credit: The ratio of high-yield (HY) to investment-grade (IG) spreads is climbing. It tells us that HY debt is underperforming IG on a spread basis.   Equities: …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2019

Greetings,   Equities: Investment newsletters have turned very bullish.   Rates: The relationship between one-month realized and implied volatility for 10-year Treasury futures has deviated from trend.   Emerging Markets: A large percentage of India’s labor force works in the “informal” economy.   The Eurozone: German consumers are worried about the economy.   The United …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2019

Greetings,   Rates: The probability of another rate cut this year dipped below 10% in response to the news of a potential US-China “interim” trade deal.   Equities: This chart shows inflation-adjusted earnings per share for the Russell 3000 (broad US market).   Energy: WTI crude oil usually rises when managed money short positioning is …