The Daily Shot® Brief

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The United States: The spread between consumer expectations and current conditions remains in recession territory.

The United Kingdom: Consumer credit experienced solid growth in March.

Japan: Japan’s housing starts have deteriorated.

Commodities: April was a good month for copper.

Equities: Major US indices held resistance at the 50-day moving average.

Food for Thought: UFO sightings:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: Here is a look at Fed rate cut probabilities at this year’s FOMC meetings.

China: The S&P Global China Manufacturing PMI:

Commodities: Gold is trading at a premium on the Shanghai Exchange relative to the US-based Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and ETF holdings have diverged between the two markets.

Cocoa futures saw a sharp pullback on Monday.

Equities: In the current earnings season, EPS surprises have been the highest since 2021 (so far).

Global Developments:  Leading indicators continue to signal an acceleration in global factory activity.

Food for Thought:  Largest health insurers’ revenue as a share of US health spending:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The Fed’s next set of policy decisions will have a massive impact on the federal government’s interest expenses.

Europe: Speculative accounts (such as hedge funds) have rapidly shifted from betting on the British pound to positioning against it.

Japan: The yen was caught in a short squeeze this morning. After reaching 160, the dollar-yen rate plummeted toward 155, unraveling the overextended short-yen positions and carry trades that use the yen as a funding currency.

Commodities: Gold prices continue to outpace gold ETFs’ holdings.

Equities: Companies that missed estimates were punished more than usual in this earnings season.

Momentum is currently exposed to strong economic growth and high interest rates. The risk of a momentum reversal should remain low in the absence of a significant macro shift or geopolitical shock, according to BlackRock.

Credit: High-yield new-issue volume declined last week amid rising rates.

Food for Thought: China’s dominance of clean-tech supply chains:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Business investment expanded again.

The United Kingdom:  UK consumer confidence improved this month.

Japan: Flows into Japan-focused equity funds have surged in recent days.

Cryptocurrency: Major cryptos are down month-to-date, with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) underperforming top peers.

Commodities: Copper futures continue to surge.

Equities: Shares of tech giants surged in after-hours trading as the market responded positively to announcements from Alphabet and other major players.

Food for Thought: Cancer mortality rates:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Market rent levels have been outpacing the rent CPI.

China: Economists have been raising their GDP projections for 2024.

Equities: Retail investors are turning bearish, with the AAII bull-bear spread dipping into negative territory for the first time this year.

Rates: Longer-term rates are vulnerable to the Fed’s “higher for longer” policy.

Commodities: The market for semi-processed copper ore is currently facing exceptional scarcity, as traders and smelters are paying prices for copper ore that nearly match its processed value, suggesting a lack of readily available supplies

Energy: US crude oil stockpiles declined sharply last week (the market expected an increase). Inventory data for refined products was less bullish. Below are weekly changes.

The largest oil ETF saw record outflows this week.

Food for Thought: Wage growth by age:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The Philly Fed’s regional service sector report shows companies cutting back employee hours.

The United Kingdom: The FTSE 100 hit a new high.

Japan: Japan’s real wages have been depressed for decades.

Commodities: Some analysts have suggested that China has driven the recent gold rally.

Energy: European natural gas storage levels remain elevated.

Equities: The AI basket selloff was significant.

Credit: CMBS spreads remain elevated as concerns about commercial property debt persist in some sectors.

Food for Thought: Rapid progress in machine learning systems:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Housing inflation has been running hotter than leading indicators suggest.

The Eurozone: Germany’s composite PMI is back in growth mode, topping expectations. The improvement was driven by services, with the manufacturing slump persisting this month.

Japan: Services CPI could climb further, forcing the BoJ to deliver another rate hike.

Commodities: Gold declined sharply on Monday as geopolitical tensions appear to have eased.

Energy: So far, higher oil prices have not boosted the expected earnings of global energy firms.

Equities: Here is a look at Goldman’s CapEx growth estimate for this year.

Credit: Active bond funds have been attracting more capital.

Food for Thought: Changes in year-to-date homicide numbers relative to 2023:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The market continues to scale back its expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2024.

The United Kingdom: Capital Economics sees more substantial rate cuts for the UK and US than is priced into the market.

Commodities: Industrial metals continue to rally.

Equities: The Magnificent 7 also posted six consecutive losses.

Rates: Goldman sees Treasury yields declining by the end of the year.

Food for Thought: States with the fewest young homeowners:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The Philly Fed’s regional manufacturing index rose this month, signaling an improvement in US factory activity. This report contrasts with the earlier data from the New York Fed.

Japan: Inflation eased last month.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a tough month for cryptos, with several altcoins underperforming bitcoin.

Equities: Micorcaps’ underperformance worsened this week.

Food for Thought: Highest-grossing music festivals:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

Commodities: Crude oil prices declined on Wednesday as traders unwound some of the geopolitical risk premium while US stockpiles continue to grow.

The United States: Mortgage applications remain well below last year’s levels.

The United Kingdom: The UK CPI figures for March were a bit higher than anticipated.

Rates: Some traders are betting that the economy and inflation will weaken significantly in the months ahead, forcing the Fed to deliver three rate cuts.

Global Development: Global inflation is much stickier than in the past.

Equities: The put/call ratio surged this week.

Food for Thought: US military’s R&D expenditure by department:

Edited by William Villacis

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