The Daily Shot Brief – December 10th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: The overall consumer debt (as % of disposable income) has declined in recent years even as the total household net worth rose. This divergence suggests that, on average, US household balance sheets remain relatively healthy. Of course, these trends have been highly uneven across income categories.   China: China’s manufacturing wage …

The Daily Shot Brief – December 5th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: Goldman’s US Current Activity Indicator has been moving lower since September.   China: Some economists predict a further slowdown in China’s manufacturing sector (before stabilization).   The Eurozone: Credit demand in the Eurozone has been slowing and is expected to become a drag on loan growth.   Credit: Baa-rated corporate …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 28th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: The Q3 GDP update was unchanged at 3.5%. Here are the latest adjustments of the GDP components.   China: These charts show the components of China’s consumer credit and debt-service burden.   The Eurozone: Italian banks have a relatively small liquidity position, making them more vulnerable.   Global Developments: The …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 27th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: This chart shows Morgan Stanley’s GDP forecast for the next couple of years (including the GDP components).   China: China’s official export figures have diverged from those reported by its trading partners   The Eurozone: Exports have been weakening at the Eurozone level as well (and diverging from the global trend).   …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 26th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: The divergence between “soft” and “hard” consumption indicators persists.   China: Housing inventories are expected to climb next year.   The Eurozone: Low oil prices sent market-based inflation expectations sharply lower.   Global Developments: What does growth in the world’s monetary base tell us about the timing of the next recession?   Equities: …