Greetings,
Equities: VIX futures surged above 30 as the VIX curve moved deep into backwardation.
The stock/bond correlation has weakened.
Commodities: Hedge funds have turned bearish on commodities.
Emerging Markets: Leading indicators point to an earnings rebound for EM companies.
The United States: Some of the weakness in the jobs report was due to seasonal adjustments. Here is a quote from Scotiabank Economics:
“If instead of using the BLS SA factor for July 2024 that generated this morning’s +114k print we were to apply the average SA factor for months of July up to and including 2019 before the pandemic struck the next year, then this July’s nonfarm payrolls would have been up by about 200k instead of 114k.”
Global Developments: Markets are pricing in additional rate cuts across most advanced economies for this year.
Food for Thought: Global Big Mac prices compared to the US:
Edited by William Villacis
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