Greetings, United States: The CPI report surprised to the upside, with inflation hitting multi-decade highs. Europe: The Eurozone has seen a significant increase in capital outflows over the past year (driven by bonds). China: Credit expansion was robust in January. Emerging Markets: With prices surging, Banxico hiked rates again (as expected). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 11th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: Mortgage applications to purchase a home dropped last week. Are rising mortgage rates starting to take a toll on housing demand? The 30-year mortgage rate is approaching 4%. Asia-Pacific: JGB yields keep climbing. Commodities: Many commodities are in backwardation amid tight supplies. Equities: There has been quite a …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 10th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: COVID has not been the reason for the recent weakness in the U. Michigan consumer sentiment indicator. Instead, it’s been about inflation. Canada: Here are the January employment changes by sector. Eurozone: Loan demand in the Eurozone has picked up. China: You can’t have the stock market slump …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 9th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: Let’s begin with some updates on inflation. • Slower used car price gains point to a somewhat smaller core CPI increase in January, according to Nomura. • Services are now taking the lead from goods for the next leg of price increases. Rent will be a key component of that trend …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 8th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: The 2yr Treasury yield is nearing pre-COVID levels, … … as the yield curve keeps flattening (2 charts). United Kingdom: The BoE sharply boosted its inflation forecast for the next two years. But the three-year projection was moved lower (rapid rate hikes are expected to slow growth and inflation). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 7th, 2022”
Greetings, Eurozone: Faced with an unprecedented surge in prices, the ECB is changing direction. Christine Lagarde acknowledged that “inflation is likely to remain elevated for longer than previously expected …” For months now, the central bank has been surprised by the strength of euro-area inflation reports. “Compared with our expectations in December, risks to the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 4th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: Mortgage applications remain very strong despite higher rates. Eurozone: The euro-area inflation report was a shocker, with the CPI climbing above 5% for the first time. Energy was the biggest driver of inflation, but the core CPI (2nd panel) surprised to the upside as well. Cryptocurrency: The bitcoin downtrend …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 3rd, 2022”
Greetings, United States: Growth in US factory activity moderated some more in January. The ISM PMI index was roughly in line with expectations. United Kingdom: The UK’s biggest container port has been very congested. China: Below is China’s power generation by energy source. Commodities: Bloomberg’s agriculture index continues to surge. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 2nd, 2022”
Greetings, United States: Manufacturers’ backlogs remain massive, suggesting that factories will keep busy in the months ahead. The divergence between orders and output indicates that manufacturers haven’t been able to keep up. Eurozone: As the TLTRO program ends, the ECB may exempt more excess reserves from the negative deposit rate. China: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 1st, 2022”
Greetings, United States: With employment costs rising quickly, the chances of the FOMC boosting rates by 50 bps rather than 25 bps in March hit 23%. A 125 bps total rate increase this year (five 25 bps hikes) is now almost a certainty, according to the fed funds futures market. China: The renminbi …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 31st, 2022”
