Greetings, United States: The CPI report was in line with expectations, as inflation hit the highest level in over 40 years. Energy: Energy markets are well off recent highs. Meanwhile, uranium prices are surging. Eurozone: The ECB will wind down QE sooner than expected, but will delay rate hikes due to the …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 10th, 2022
Greetings, United States: The CPI peak projections keep getting pushed out by economists The labor market remains tight, with the job openings report topping expectations. Equities: Small caps have been resilient in the recent selloff, with microcaps outperforming over the past week. Eurozone: European natural gas futures tumbled but remain well …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 9th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Below is a new index of consumer inflation expectations from ICE. Imports from China are still elevated. Energy: Making plastics is becoming unprofitable in Asia. Demand destruction? Will Russia turn off the spigot? Equities: Risk appetite has deteriorated, but is sentiment about to stabilize? Eurozone: The …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 8th, 2022
Greetings, United States: The yield curve keeps flattening as the market prices in slower growth ahead. This comes as President Biden announces a ban on US imports of Russian oil. Commodities: Nickel exploded to the upside as market participants got caught in a short squeeze (hedges have blown up amid massive margin calls). …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 7th, 2022
Greetings, Energy: Discussions of a Russian oil embargo and a setback in the Iran deal sent crude oil to multi-year highs. At this point, however, it’s not clear if Europe will agree to halt Russian oil purchases. European natural gas is up 45% today on Russian supply concerns. Commodities: COMEX copper futures hit …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 4th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Forget 50 bps. The market is no longer sure about a 25 bps rate hike this month. Concerns about the consequences of Russia’s invasion keep markets on edge. Russia’s attack on the nuclear power plant sent Treasury yields sharply lower. Eurozone: Market-based inflation expectations are soaring. Emerging Markets: Ukrainian …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 3rd, 2022
tGreetings, Commodities: Commodity inventories have been drawing down to near-record lows over the past year. Copper and aluminum inventories remain extremely low (2 charts). Energy: Brent crude is nearing $117/bbl, the highest level in a decade. Equities: Small caps are widening their outperformance. Rates: Treasury market liquidity has deteriorated. United …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 2nd, 2022
Greetings, United States: Crude oil is now up about 45% year-to-date, with Brent blasting past $110/bbl. There are growing concerns that the massive price surge will become a substantial drag on the US and global economy this year. China: Developers have been struggling to raise capital from traditional sources. And funding …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 1st, 2022
Greetings, United States: The Chicago PMI showed a downshift in the region’s business activity in February Moreover, the spread between the indices of new orders and inventory dipped below zero, pointing to slower growth ahead. Supply-chain strains remain elevated. Europe: European rigid wage system is yet to budge despite labor shortages. …
The Daily Shot Brief – February 28th, 2022
Greetings, Equities: Western nations revoked access to SWIFT for major Russian banks. While some efforts were made to carve out energy-related payments, many private entities will refuse to transact with Russian institutions until there is more clarity on the situation. For now, sales of most commodities will be challenging for Russia. Brent crude surged …
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