Greetings, Equities: Who are the largest sellers and buyers of order flow? Alternatives: Which sectors saw the most private equity deals last year? Rates: The aggregate duration of fixed-income markets keeps climbing, which will exacerbate losses if rates rise suddenly. United Kingdom: The BoE told banks they have six months to …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 5th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The strength in mortgage applications has been impressive. United Kingdom: The BoE is expected to keep policy on hold (no new stimulus). The central bank financed 122% of the annual budget deficit last year. The gilt curve has steepened. China: According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, China’s budget deficit widened substantially …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 4th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: What are the differences between the Gang of 10 and Biden’s stimulus plans? • Dollar allocations: • Impact on incomes: China: As we saw in the official report, China’s service sector growth lost momentum last month. Commodities: The largest silver ETF tumbled on Tuesday as the Reddit (retail) trade soured. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 3rd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Pandemic-driven housing appraisal waivers keep climbing. Mortgage lending standards eased slightly last quarter. Eurozone: Logistics bottlenecks have been a problem for European manufacturers. Emerging Markets: India is gearing up to finance a massive budget. The stock market liked the news, though bonds sold off Equities: Here …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 2nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Consumers are more apt to spend the new stimulus checks than the CARES Act payments last year. Eurozone: The euro-area broad money supply expansion accelerated further in December. The rapid money supply expansion points to a potential rebound in economic activity once the pandemic is under control. Commodities: The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 1st, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Business and consumer confidence indicators have diverged. United Kingdom: New COVID cases are falling. China: Short-term rates keep climbing. This is certainly one way to delever the financial system. Here is the 10yr yield vs. the overnight rate. Equities: VIX has diverged from the 30-day historical volatility. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 29th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: GameStop’s market value hit $24 billion. As a demonstration of just how distorted the market has become, here is the share price of a relatively small Australian mining company called GME Resources. The good news for the miner is that it has the same ticker symbol as GameStop (but in Australia), and …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 28th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: The S&P 500 realized correlation is dangerously low. Rates: US government bond overnight repo rates are back in negative territory as money markets are flooded with liquidity. Commodities: China’s steel mills are losing money. China: China dominates the world’s lithium-ion battery supply chain. United Kingdom: Businesses are concerned …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 27th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: Encouraged by the Reddit group r/wallstreetbets (and other online discussion boards), retail traders caused a massive short-squeeze in GameStop shares. The practice of targeted short-selling appears to have been permanently altered. Credit: Supported by the Fed’s purchases, agency MBS debt continues to rally. MBS spreads have tumbled going into the year-end, pushing …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 26th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Existing home sales were quite strong in December. The second chart shows the year-to-date cumulative trends. The number of US homes for sale is at multi-decade lows. United Kingdom: The government’s support for the job market is expected to climb further, … … pushing borrowing beyond £400bn this year. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 25th, 2021”
