Greetings, The United States: First, Treasury yields jumped following the hawkish FOMC minutes. The yield curve moved deeper into inversion. Market-based inflation expectations keep drifting lower with oil. The United Kingdom: The misery index is nearing the post-2008 peak. China: Developer fundraising in bond markets is starting to pick up. Emerging …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 6th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The trade-weighted US dollar index hit the highest level in nearly two decades. Japan: Japan is now entangled in natural gas supply risk. The public is more upbeat about nuclear energy. Commodities: The Bloomberg Commodities Index corrected last month, although it has rarely produced such a positive return during the …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 5th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First, employment and new orders are now a drag on the ISM PMI index. According to the report, US manufacturing growth slowed in June but held in positive territory. Treasury yields declined sharply over the past couple of weeks as recession fears mount. Canada: The corporate interest coverage ratio remains …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 1st, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The market no longer expects the Fed to take rates above 3.5%. China: Supplier delays are officially over. Russia: Russia’s stock index tumbled as Gazprom stopped dividend payments for the first time since 1998. Commodities: Energy and metals have diverged. Equities: A repeat of 1973? Interesting correlation …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 30th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, mortgage applications to purchase a home dropped sharply last week and are now down 24% vs. last year. Tight financial conditions will substantially boost recession risks by mid-2023 according to Deutsche Bank. The Eurozone: Spain’s inflation continues to surge, hitting 10% this month. China: Diverging monetary policy …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 29th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Starting off, the regional Fed indicators point to manufacturing contraction at the national level this month. Also, the divergence between home prices and wages continues to widen. The Eurozone: There was a hint of slower inflation in Germany. On the other hand, German electricity prices have surged to an …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 28th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, US durable goods orders topped expectations, with business investment holding up well despite the headwinds (note that these figures are not adjusted for inflation). The Eurozone: Germany’s consumer sentiment hit a record low. China: The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index is entering overbought territory. Emerging Markets: …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 27th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: 15% of new homes sold have been over $750k. China: Industrial profits are following last year’s trajectory. Also, here is a breakdown of China’s stimulus plans. Emerging Markets: Colombia’s stocks, bonds, and currency took a hit last week after the election. In addition, Russia is officially in default …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 24th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First, the S&P Global PMI report showed a marked deceleration in business activity this month, with headline figures coming in well below forecasts. Here is manufacturing output: The terminal rate is now just above 3.5%, as the market expects the FED to begin cutting rates as soon as the …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 23rd, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First on consumer spending, real card spending growth is now negative. Canada: The May CPI report topped expectations – again. Here is the headline CPI: Europe: The Czech central bank hiked its benchmark rate by 125bps to 7%. The market expects a recession, with the yield curve deeply inverted. …
