The Daily Shot® Brief

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The United States: The PPI report was much softer than expected, with the headline index remaining nearly flat last month. Core PPI edged lower, pulled down by trade services (business markups).

Equities: The S&P 500 entered correction territory on Thursday.

Credit: High-yield credit default swap volatility surged this month.

Commodities: Orange juice futures have dropped 52% from their peak as funds exit. The market has also seen some demand destruction due to persistently high prices.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a tough week for cryptos, with DeFi tokens underperforming top peers.

Food for Thought: Decline in international adoptions:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: While the softer CPI report was welcome, manufacturing surveys indicate a potential acceleration in goods inflation in the coming months.

Fund flows into inflation-linked Treasuries:

Equities: Non-US stocks have outperformed their US counterparts for eight consecutive trading sessions.

Credit: US high-yield spreads have now risen above those in Europe.

Commodities: US firms are paying a substantial premium for aluminum over London prices.

High-performance memory chip prices have been surging.

Japan: Japanese investors returned to foreign stocks last week.

Food for Thought: Global data center capacity distribution:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: Here is the Beveridge Curve.

China: Export orders to Asia and other developing countries increased over the past month.

Energy: Investor sentiment on crude oil has been very bearish.

Equities: The stock-bond correlation is turning negative as focus shifts from inflation to growth.

Credit: CLO refinancing and rate reset activity remain elevated.

Rates: The inversion of the breakeven inflation curve signals growing concerns about near-term inflation risks, while slower growth tempers inflation in the long run.

Food for Thought: Retirement savings longevity by state:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Equities: Here is the year-to-date performance of US sectors and equity factors/styles.

Magnificent 7 stocks fell into bear market territory on Monday amid economic concerns.

Rates: Short-term Treasury ETFs are seeing inflows.

China: China’s stocks have been outperforming their global counterparts.

The Eurozone: Germany’s industrial production rose in January, indicating potential stabilization.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw their fourth consecutive week of outflows. Regionally, US investors were the most bearish.

Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s exports last month surpassed expectations.

Food for Thought: Maps created by researchers Sébastien Philippe, Svitlana Lavrenchuk, and Ivan Stepanov depict US missile silo locations and showing the potential trajectories of fallout if those silos were targeted in a nuclear attack. These visuals demonstrate the significant variability of radiation spread due to daily wind changes, using four-day simulations based on nine days of 2021 weather data.

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: Wage growth inched higher.

Japan: Wage growth slowed in January.

Commodities: Speculative accounts are placing record bets against US cotton futures.

Energy: Speculative accounts have been reducing their bets on Brent.

Equities: Hedge funds’ popular short positions have been outperforming their long positions.

Food for Thought: Marriage and divorce rates by state:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: Ten million Americans are employed by the federal government or government contractors.

The United Kingdom: Companies continue to boost their expectations for growth in output prices.

China: The valuation gap between Mainland and Hong Kong equities is still wide relative to global equities.

Cryptocurrency: Altcoins have been vulnerable to greater price swings given their lower liquidity versus BTC.

Equities: The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average fell below 50% for the first time since 2023.

Rates: JP Morgan’s clients are bullish on Treasuries.

Food for Thought: Generational shifts in gross income share through 2040:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: Recession probabilities priced into markets have increased, with small-cap stocks, bonds, and base metals signaling the highest risks. The Russell 2000 now reflects a 48% probability of contraction, up sharply from 1% in November. Meanwhile, five-year Treasuries and base metals indicate recession odds exceeding 50%, while broader equity and credit markets remain more subdued.

The Eurozone: Bund yields recorded their biggest daily increase in decades amid Germany’s fiscal shift.

The euro continues to climb.

China: Tech stocks are driving the Hong Kong market higher following Beijing’s stimulus announcement.

Energy: The new 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports is driving up costs for US refineries reliant on heavy Canadian crude, particularly in the Midwest. This has pushed gasoline futures sharply higher, even as crude oil prices decline.

Equities: Aggregate equity positioning for professional investors is still slightly above average.

Global Developments: The stock market signals a slowdown in global semiconductor sales.

Food for Thought: US missile defense assets worldwide:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: Goldman’s US Current Activity Index (CAI) was subdued in January and February, indicating slower US growth this quarter.

Europe: Below are Deutsche Bank’s estimates of potential GDP loss in different tariff scenarios.

China: Holdings of CNY reserves have declined in recent years.

Commodities: Lumber futures continue to climb.

Equities: Retail investors are showing signs of capitulation, which could be a bullish signal.

Food for Thought: Key barriers to AI adoption in US businesses:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Treasury yields continue to decline, with the market now fully pricing in three Fed rate cuts this year.

Canada: Manufacturers are rapidly scaling back with cost pressures rising.

Emerging Markets: Mexico’s factory activity slowed in February as export orders tumbled amid tariff jitters.

Cryptocurrencies: Crypto funds saw significant outflows last week.

Commodities: Lumber futures are surging.

Credit: Investment-grade bond yield volatility has been lower than Treasury yield volatility.

Food for Thought: New York City mayoral poll:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

Cryptocurrency: Crypto markets surged after the White House announced plans for a strategic crypto reserve.

Canada: Canada’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit a record high last month.

Credit: New issuance of structured securities is approaching pre-2008 levels, driven by strong demand for asset-backed securities and collateralized loan obligations. While residential mortgage-backed securities remain well below their mid-2000s peak, corporate and consumer debt securitization has surged, reflecting renewed investor appetite for higher-yielding alternatives to traditional bonds.

Commodities: Gold’s one-year Sharpe ratio appears stretched.

Equities: Here is the quarterly performance attribution for the S&P 500 and the S&P 600 (small caps).

China: China’s steel exports are surging as domestic demand weakens, while steelmaker profits have collapsed to multi-decade lows. The divergence highlights a struggling domestic market, with excess supply shifting overseas.

Food for Thought: Global wellness economy growth and market comparison:

Edited by William Villacis

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