Greetings, The United States: To begin, economists expect home price appreciation in the US to slow sharply next year. US real yields continue to climb, pressuring stocks. The Eurozone: At the Eurozone level, the CPI surprised to the upside again, hitting a new high. Core inflation is also surging (2nd panel). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 1st, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: There are still two job openings per every unemployed worker in the US. The Fed would like to see this ratio come down meaningfully. Until then, the central bank will continue to pressure the demand side of the economy. The market now expects the Fed to increase rates by another …
Greetings, The United States: To begin, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech brought the market into a closer alignment with the FOMC’s dot plot. With slowing demand in the housing market, more sellers are switching their listings to rentals. The Eurozone: A 75 bps ECB rate hike in September looks increasingly likely. China: To counter …
Greetings, The United States: On Friday, Jerome Powell reminded the markets not to expect a “pivot” from the US central bank. They will keep at raising rates until price stability is restored. Real yields jumped as a result. This information put downward pressure on stocks. The Eurozone: ECB officials also struck a hawkish tone …
Greetings, The United States: Q2 GDP growth was revised higher. This revision is due to a boost from initially reported consumer spending. China: According to Gavekal Research, developers’ onshore debt extensions have been rapidly accumulating. Next year’s maturity wall looks alarming. Energy: US frackers are expected to make $200 billion this year. …
Greetings, The United States: To begin, capital goods orders and shipments growth (a proxy for business investment) remained robust in July. In the labor market, unemployment duration continues to move lower (workers who lost jobs find new employment quickly). The Eurozone: Germany’s natural gas inventories will be ready for winter, albeit at …
Greetings, The United States: New home sales slumped last month, down more than 30% compared to last year. The Eurozone: PMI data looks recessionary (<50). The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing based upon a monthly survey of supply chain managers. On a …
Greetings, The United States: To begin, the probability of a 75 bps rate hike in September is near 70% as Fed officials strike a hawkish tone. Looking at inflation, slower gains in China’s producer prices should help ease US consumer inflation. China: Business activity in China is still in contraction according to the August …
Greetings, The United States: Is this the end of the housing cycle or just a pause? More Americans are holding two or more full-time jobs. The Eurozone: In Germany, the PPI (Producer Price Index) hit 37% in July, topping forecasts. Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s trade deficit widened to a new record in August as energy …
Greetings, The United States: Home price appreciation slowed last month but remains above pre-COVID levels (the second panel shows monthly price changes). China: Risk aversion among China’s households has increased as income confidence slumps. Europe: Electricity prices continue to surge as the European energy crisis worsens. Equities: A lot of options expired today. …
