Greetings, The United States: To begin, the Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker appears to have peaked. Consumer savings remain elevated, which should provide a cushion as the economy slows. The United Kingdom: The UK government is walking back most of the tax cuts. Energy: The COVID-era rebound in US oil production has …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 18th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Import prices continue to ease due to the US dollar strength and disinflationary trends in China. Canada: Existing home sales are down for seven months in a row. The United Kingdom: The government’s actions appear to be increasingly desperate. The drawdown in long-term gilts has been spectacular. Europe: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 17th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Once again, the CPI report surprised to the upside, pointing to entrenched inflation in the US. Here are the contributions. The year is expected to end with the fed funds rate at 4.5%. The market sees the terminal rate approaching 5% next year. Equities: Stocks have decoupled from …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 14th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: First, the PPI report surprised to the upside. Corporate margins are expected to keep tightening. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s stagflationary risks are extreme. Commodities: Orange juice futures have been surging in the pandemic era. Credit: BCA Research sees a relatively modest increase in defaults next year. Emerging …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 13th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Easing supply chain bottlenecks point to slowing core goods inflation. The United Kingdom: The BoE’s bond market intervention will end this Friday, which shocked global markets. The volatility in inflation linked-gilts has been extreme. China: Loan growth surged last month as the central bank injected liquidity into the banking system. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 12th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: First, the September jobs report was stronger than expected, delivering another confirmation that the labor market remains tight. Here are the drivers of the unemployment rate. Consumer credit increased more than expected in August, driven by credit cards. Households continue to spend. China: The US semiconductor sales curbs are putting …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 11th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Gasoline prices are going higher as inventories tumble. The Eurozone: Import prices have been surging in Germany. China: China’s consumption of coal is massive. Emerging Markets: Foreigners are pulling out of Turkey’s stocks after piling in a few weeks ago. Equities: Let’s take a look at who owns the US …
Greetings, The United States: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model Q3 growth estimate climbed 2.7% (annualized). The United Kingdom: UK households are holding on to excess savings. Energy: OPEC is cutting production, sending oil prices higher. US gasoline demand surged recently as prices continue to rebound. Equities: More firms issued positive EPS …
Greetings, The United States: August’s job openings report surprised to the downside, an indication that the labor market is finally starting to ease. From the Fed’s perspective, this is good news. However, there is still a long way to go to bring the labor market balance to pre-COVID levels. Here is the number …
Greetings, The United States: The combination of faster supplier deliveries and shrinking order backlogs in the US ISM manufacturing PMI report points to tighter corporate margins and lower PPI. Europe: The Swiss central bank tightened monetary policy by sharply reducing liquidity last month. Asia – Pacific: Singapore appears to be entering a recession. …
