The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Banks have borrowed $165 billion from the Fed over the past week:

– $152.85 billion via the discount window and …

– $11.9 billion via the Fed’s new emergency facility (Bank Term Funding Program). And there is more to come …

The Eurozone: The central bank’s hawkish action shifted rate trajectory expectations sharply higher.

Energy: Crude oil appears to be oversold.

Equities: This chart shows financial sector performance globally since March 8th.

Investor sentiment has been moving deeper into bear-market territory.

Rates: Inflows into Treasury funds remain elevated.

Food for Thought: Projections for Medicare spending:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Credit: Despite mounting banking fears, European banks are generally in good shape.

Another regional bank spooking investors is First Republic Bank, which had its debt downgraded to BB. Below is the bond price.

Energy: Crude oil has been under pressure amid bank crisis fears.

Commodities: Gold has been rallying together with the US dollar. That’s highly unusual, indicating a rush into “safe-haven” assets.

The United States: Retail sales declined last month. Here are the contributions.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s government deficit has blown out.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here are views on China in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Housing inflation continues to dominate core CPI gains (2 charts).

The United Kingdom: The unemployment rate remains relatively low.

Equities: Are stocks now oversold relative to bonds?

Rates: Ultrashort bond funds have not matched the smooth ride offered by true cash assets (index tracking the 30-day Treasury bill).

Credit: US auto loan delinquencies continue to rise.

Food for Thought: Lastly, US bank failures over time:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The Treasury curve steepened sharply in response to the SVB collapse.

Financial conditions tightened meaningfully on Monday.

Credit: How would capital ratios be impacted if banks had to crystallize unrealized losses on bonds?

Equities: Balance sheet strength is in focus.

The Eurozone: The market has massively repriced the ECB terminal rate.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw outflows for the fifth consecutive week, the largest weekly outflow on record.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the number of objects in low Earth orbit:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Treasury yields are down sharply over the past couple of days.

The market has massively repriced Fed rate hike expectations. 50 bps this month looks unlikely now.

Equities: Big banks have been the beneficiaries of SVB’s troubles (as deposits flow in their direction).

Here is last week’s performance data across sectors.

Credit: This chart shows mark-to-market losses in the overall banking system.

Canada: The employment report was stronger than expected.

Emerging Markets: EM debt sales have slowed.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here are different ballistic missile trajectories:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The number of unemployment applications has now surpassed the average of 2018, 2019, and 2022 levels.

Continuing claims are now well above last year’s levels.

Equities: Equities have diverged from bonds as recession risks resurface.

Credit: IG fund flows remain robust.

Rates: Flows into Treasury funds have been strong.

China: The PPI weakness has been driven by upstream price declines.

Food for Thought: NYC hotel prices:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The February ADP private payrolls index topped expectations.

The Beveridge Curve also points to an imbalance.

Equities: Will peak inflation spark a recovery for the S&P 500?

BofA’s Global Wealth & Investment Management Survey shows a massive preference for bonds over equities.

Credit: This chart shows S&P’s reasons for potential credit downgrades

Canada: The loonie is under pressure as the BoC leaves rates unchanged.

China: The PPI moved deeper into negative territory. This is good news for inflation in the US.

Food for Thought: Here are battery manufacturing forecasts:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The implied terminal rate climbed above 5.6%. Are we headed for 6%?

The United Kingdom: The pound is breaking below support.

Equities: Despite recent underperformance, tech mega-caps are still expensive.

Rates: The 2-year Treasury yield has been following the Citi Economic Surprise Index.

The Eurozone: Pantheon Macroeconomics sees the ECB ramping up QT later this year.

Cryptocurrency: Fundraising in crypto gaming jumped 79% over the past two months.

Food for Thought: Top-paid US CEOs:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States:  The one-year sovereign credit default swap spread hit its highest level since 2011 when the debt ceiling impasse resulted in a US debt downgrade.

Equities: For the S&P 500 tech sector, expectations for quarterly earnings growth throughout 2023 have softened.

Rates: Treasury market bearish bets are hitting new extremes.

The Eurozone: The market-implied ECB terminal rate continues to climb, breaching 4% recently.

Japan: Real wages in Japan tumbled in January.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index declined from “greed” territory to neutral over the past month.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is a look at PC/notebook market share:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Supplier delivery times continued to shorten.

The United Kingdom: Companies are having a tough time recruiting.

The Eurozone: Speculative accounts have been boosting their bets on the euro.

Emerging Markets: Colombia’s core inflation continues to surge.

Equities: The S&P 500 held support at the 200-day moving average.

Credit: US life insurance holdings have a high allocation to corporate bonds.

Food for Thought: Workers needed to generate $1 million at S&P 500 companies:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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