The United States: Spooked by surging long-term Treasury yields, the White House has implemented a dramatic set of tariff adjustments. It has temporarily reduced the previously imposed reciprocal tariffs on most US trade partners to a flat 10% for 90 days to encourage negotiations, while sharply raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. A 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports remains in place.
Additionally, following the expiration of the temporary USMCA suspension, vehicle tariffs are now likely in effect—potentially imposing a 25% duty on vehicles imported from Canada and Mexico, with the threat of further increases.
While a new 125% tariff on select Chinese goods may appear aggressive, such extreme levels likely yield diminishing returns, as trade volumes collapse and substitution effects intensify—placing the US on the downward slope of the tariff Laffer Curve.
The United States: Longer-dated Treasury yields continued to rise amid recession concerns—which could pressure the federal government’s fiscal position—and declining foreign demand. The sharp selloff in Treasuries could drive up US borrowing costs, strain credit markets, and impact the housing sector.
Source: The Daily Shot
Europe: French manufacturing production climbed in February.
Source: The Daily Shot
Emerging Markets: Turkey’s inflation continues to moderate.
Source: The Daily Shot
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin has entered a death cross.
Source: The Daily Shot
Commodities: Iron ore futures are tumbling.
Source: The Daily Shot
Equities: Someone has thrown a Hail Mary pass.
Source: The Daily Shot
Food for Thought: Americans’ views on the deportation of immigrants living in the country illegally:
Global Developments: The newly announced US tariffs introduce a universal 10% duty on all imports, effective April 5, 2025, with higher “reciprocal” tariffs targeting specific countries starting April 9, 2025. Asia and Europe were hit the hardest.
Commodities: We have the year-to-date performance across key commodity markets.
Source: The Daily Shot
Rates: This chart illustrates the attribution of year-to-date changes in Treasury yields.
Source: The Daily Shot
Emerging Markets: Ukraine’s Q4 GDP growth surprised to the downside.
Source: The Daily Shot
Ukrainian bonds and GDP warrants have reversed nearly all gains made after Trump’s election, as peace hopes fade and geopolitical tensions resurface. The GDP warrant’s sharp drop underscores market doubts about near-term growth and a credible truce, especially amid renewed friction over the minerals deal and missed economic triggers.
