The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The PPI report provided further evidence of easing inflationary pressures, with the June headline and core figures coming in below forecasts.

The United Kingdom: UK investment and savings have lagged other advanced economies.

Cryptocurrency: On Thursday, the SEC charged Celsius and its founder/former CEO with violating securities laws.

Energy: Crude oil prices continue to surge.

Equities: This chart shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average.

Food for Thought: Top 25 global banks by market cap:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The supercore CPI (services less housing) was flat on the month, a welcome development for the Fed.

Despite the positive inflation news, the market still expects the Fed to raise rates this month. But the July hike could mark the end of the hiking cycle.

China: Exports were lower than expected last month (well below 2022 levels).

Emerging Markets: EM’s growth/value ratio has significantly underperformed DM’s this year.

Equities: Analysts expect earnings growth to reaccelerate.

Rates: Real rate increases have outpaced nominal rates, lowering inflation expectations.

Food for Thought: Here are views on the impact of K-12  schools on the US:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Even as businesses continue to report a downward trend in sales, their sales projections were slightly less gloomy last month.

The United Kingdom: Permanent placements have been slowing.

Japan: The PPI is slowing rapidly.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw three straight weeks of inflows, fully correcting the prior nine weeks of outflows.

Commodities: Cocoa supplies are running low.

Equities: Global investors are very bearish on US stocks.

Food for Thought: The Index of Economic Freedom:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Consumer credit growth slowed sharply in May.

Non-revolving consumer credit (mostly auto loans and student debt) declined for the first time since the pandemic shock.

The Eurozone: The Treasury-Bund spread has diverged from the US-Eurozone economic surprise differential.

China: Beijing appears to have stabilized the renminbi.

Equities: Hawkish signals from the Fed and robust US employment data sent the stock-bond correlation back into positive territory.

Alternatives: Global private equity activity has been running well below 2022 levels.

Cryptocurrency: The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s discount has narrowed significantly on hopes for a spot-bitcoin ETF conversion.

Food for Thought: Here is Threads’ user count:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The June payrolls figures came in below expectations …

… for the first time in over a year. Nonetheless, the report was sufficiently robust to ensure a Fed rate hike this month.

The Eurozone: EUR/USD has been resilient despite weaker economic data versus the US

Emerging Markets: Russia’s automobile sales jumped in June.

Commodities: Solar capacity growth is expected to drive demand for silver (according to ANZ).

Equities: Compared to Treasuries and corporate bonds, stocks appear progressively less appealing.

Credit: Here is last week’s performance by asset class.

Food for Thought: The hottest June on record:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: While the ADP index is not well correlated to the official nonfarm payrolls (Establishment Survey) on a monthly basis, the trends tend to converge over time.

Canada: The trade balance unexpectedly swung into deficit amid lower commodity prices.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s goods trade balance is back in surplus.

Emerging Markets: EM equities typically outperform after US recessions.

Energy: Shares of uranium producers are under pressure.

Equities: International shares continue to underperform the S&P 500.

Food for Thought: US college enrollment rates:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Based on market pricing, the monetary policy is already fairly restrictive.

The Eurozone: The Eurozone PPI is in negative territory on a year-over-year basis.

China: China’s stocks have underperformed global peers. Here are tech stocks:

Emerging Markets: India’s services growth remains robust.

Equities: The S&P 500 traded around the low end of its average pre-recession range. Performance typically flattens 6-12 months before a recession begins.

Global Developments: The surge in trade as a share of global GDP has plateaued since the financial crisis.

Food for Thought: Here is the number of transistors per microprocessor:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Construction spending jumped in May, …

… boosted by a sharp increase in residential investment.

The United Kingdom: Here is the rate swap curve.

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s electronics sector remains in contraction territory.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw a second week of inflows led by long-bitcoin products. Short-bitcoin funds continued to see outflows last week. (2 charts)

Equities: On an equal-weight basis, the S&P 500 industrial sector reached an all-time high, outpacing the S&P 500’s drawdown recovery.

Food for Thought: Losing money in Vegas:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The supercore inflation measure slowed in May but remains elevated on a year-over-year basis.

Equities: Outside the tech mega-caps, S&P 500 valuations look reasonable.

Stocks have diverged from reserve balances (liquidity).

Global Developments: Here is a look at performance during the first half of 2023, with bonds and stocks improving. However, performance is very narrow over the past 18 months, with some commodities outperforming.

Asia-Pacific: Factories in Taiwan are rapidly reducing staff.

The United Kingdom: Speculative bets on the pound hit the highest level since 2014.

Food for Thought: Here is the estimated prevalence of modern slavery around the world:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: This chart shows the growth in real final sales to private domestic purchasers (the “core” GDP).

The United Kingdom: The broad money supply is now flat year-over-year (2 charts).

China: Consumption is improving as households utilize savings.

Energy: Uranium demand is expected to surge.

Equities: Retail investors remain bullish.

Alternatives: Middle-market private equity share of fundraising surged this year.

Food for Thought: Women’s right to vote (globally):

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief