The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The market interpreted Powell’s comments as being a bit on the hawkish side, pushing the probability of another rate hike to 65%.

Credit card delinquencies are grinding higher as consumers face headwinds.

Credit: Stressed credits have been outperforming.

Equities: This month, the S&P 500 failed to achieve two consecutive daily gains – a phenomenon not seen in years.

Japan: The BoJ’s JGB purchases are expected to hit a record high this year.

The Eurozone: Germany’s Ifo sentiment index surprised to the downside.

Food for Thought: Active trading by members of Congress:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Elevated real rates suggest that the spending shift from goods to services will continue.

Rates: At the Jackson Hole meeting, there’s likely to be significant discussion about the long-run interest rate and whether the current US monetary policy is sufficiently tight. Here are some estimates (real rates).

Equities: Here is how the S&P 500 performed around Jackson Hole events.

The Eurozone: Markets downshifted ECB rate hike expectations after the disappointing August PMI report (see chart).

Asia-Pacific: South Korean corporate earnings are improving relative to China.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s central bank surprised with a 750 bps rate hike, as Hafize Gaye Erkan pursues a more traditional monetary policy.

Food for Thought: The AI gold rush:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Despite soft demand, businesses are reporting an upturn in inflation.

• •  Richmond Fed’s regional manufacturing survey shows slower current price increases, …

… but measures of expected prices have turned higher.

The United Kingdom: Government borrowing was lower than expected last month.

Asia-Pacific: Australia’s service-sector contraction accelerated this month.

Commodities: Hedge funds have reduced their exposure to precious metals.

Rates: The Fed is less uncertain about forecasting lower inflation ahead.

Food for Thought: Relative chance of enrolling in highly selective colleges based on parents’ income group:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: While rents are down on a year-over-year basis, they continue to rise.

Canada: Home prices are rebounding.

China: Beijing managed to stabilize the renminbi.

Equities: A breakout in the 10-year Treasury yield is not always bearish for stocks.

Tech fund flows remain strong.

Global Developments: Rate expectations have declined more in the Eurozone and UK vs. the US.

Food for Thought: 735 million people are facing hunger.

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Tighter financial conditions have resulted from higher bond yields, recent gains in the dollar, and the stock market wobble.

The United Kingdom: UK inflation has been more persistent than that in the Eurozone.

Commodities: Have agriculture fund outflows finally ceased?

Energy: European LNG prices remain elevated amid labor uncertainty in Australia’s gas platforms.

Equities: Sentiment deteriorated sharply in recent days.

• • The put/call ratio:

Food for Thought: The US pay gap has been narrowing:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Philly Fed’s regional manufacturing index points to improving factory activity this month.

Japan: This chart shows Japan’s service-sector activity.

Emerging Markets: EM debt funds saw substantial outflows last week.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a difficult week for cryptos, with Litecoin’s LTC underperforming top peers.

Rates: Either Treasury yields are heading lower, or the Fed isn’t done with rate hikes yet.

Food for Thought: Are advertisers ignoring older Americans?

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States:  Last month’s housing starts were stronger than expected, climbing above 2022 levels.

Australia: The labor market shows signs of sputtering, with unexpected job losses in July.

China: The renminbi hit the lowest level vs. USD since 2008 as Beijing tries to arrest the decline.

The rate differential with the US continues to widen, pressuring China’s currency.

Credit: The Bank Term Funding Program usage keeps rising, suggesting that some smaller US banks are facing funding headwinds.

Energy: US crude oil production hit the highest level since the COVID shock.

Food for Thought: Commodity costs as a share of battery prices:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Robust Amazon Prime Day and back-to-school sales contributed to the upside surprise. The charts below provide the breakdown by sector.

The United Kingdom: Inflation was higher than expected last month, with the core CPI remaining stubbornly high.

Europe: Sweden’s core inflation remains stubbornly high.

China: International air travel remains below pre-COVID levels.

Equities: Global fund managers are becoming less bearish.

Global Developments: NDR’s global recession probability has declined.

Food for Thought: US credit card delinquencies:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

China: The PBoC unexpectedly cut its one-year benchmark rate as economic activity slumps.

The credit impulse is rolling over.

Japan: GDP growth was shockingly strong in Q2, boosted by net exports.

Europe: Economists have been lowering their unemployment forecasts for the euro area.

Emerging Markets:  The Russian ruble bounced from the lows as the central bank hiked rates by 350 bps to stabilize the currency.

Equities: The market is pricing in a no-recession scenario.

Rates: The largest long-dated Treasury ETF registered a significant outflow.

Food for Thought: Here are generative AI job listings:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: One driver of the services PPI gains was a sharp increase in portfolio management fees. Stock market gains boosted the dollar amount charged for asset management.

Despite higher gasoline prices, consumer inflation expectations eased this month.

Equities: BofA’s private clients have been dumping growth stocks.

Rates: TIPS flows are rebounding.

The United Kingdom: The GDP report surprised to the upside with robust gains in June.

China: Loan growth hit a multi-year low. Here are year-over-year changes.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s current account swung into surplus in June.

Food for Thought: Opening weekends for films and box-office revenue:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief