The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The probability of a rate hike in November declined as Fed officials’ concern grew about rising Treasury yields and tightening financial conditions.

Treasury yields dropped sharply, with the 2-year rate dipping below 5%.

Energy: Oil implied volatility continues to rise.

Credit: Cat bonds have been outperforming.

Equities: The disparity between valuations and real yields extends beyond the tech-heavy S&P 500. Here is the equal-weighted index:

China: After the Evergrande fiasco, markets viewed Country Garden as a relatively safe bet. That bet didn’t end well.

Emerging Markets: USD/IDR is at resistance as the Indonesian rupiah weakens.

Food for Thought: AI and intellectual property:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Consumer credit tumbled in August as borrowers paid down some of their student debt.

The United Kingdom: Traders turned bearish on the pound last week.

Energy: Oil futures jumped in response to escalating violence in the Middle East.

Credit: Oil & Gas companies accounted for 19% of the overall high-yield new issue supply this year.

China: EV exports are booming, but so are exports of cars with internal combustion engines.

Canada: The probability of a BoC rate hike this month jumped after the wage growth surprise.

Emerging Markets: Chile’s core inflation is easing rapidly.

Food for Thought: Annual home ownership cost as a percent of median income:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Job cut announcements eased last month and are back at pre-COVID levels.

The United Kingdom: Here is a look at UK carbon emission contract prices vs. the EU.

Emerging Markets: Mexico stocks tumbled after the news on airport fees.

Cryptocurrency: This chart shows the most “crypto-obsessed” countries.

Commodities: Gold entered a death cross and is now firmly in oversold territory.

Equities: The put-call ratio surged this week, pointing to bearish sentiment.

Food for Thought: Student loan debt:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The ADP private payrolls report alleviated some concerns about the US labor market’s vitality raised by the job openings data.

Canada: The CFIB Business Barometer points to a downturn in Canada’s GDP.

Energy: Crude oil prices plunged in response to weak gasoline demand in the US.

Equities: The market keeps betting on the US onshoring trend.

The Eurozone: Retail sales dropped sharply in August.

Global Developments: Wider interest rate differentials supported the recent dollar rally.

Food for Thought: Buying vs. renting:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The job openings report exceeded expectations, suggesting that the labor market may not be cooling fast enough for the Fed.

Japan: The 10-year JGB yield is the highest in a decade.

Commodities: Commodity market inflows remain robust.

Equities: The Dow has given up its gains for the year and is now firmly in oversold territory.

Credit: Leveraged loans (which pay a floating-rate coupon) continue to outperform high-yield bonds.

Rates: Treasury term premium continues to rise.

Food for Thought: Literacy scores:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

Equities: So far, US homebuilding stocks have shrugged off accelerating mortgage rates.

Emerging Markets: EM bond prices continue to sink in dollar terms.

Commodities: Surging real rates and the US dollar rally continue to pose downside risks for gold.

The United States: The September ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating an easing in the US factory slump.

Last month, the decline in rents was greater than the typical decrease observed in September.

The Eurozone: The manufacturing slump continued last month, with the PMI report pointing to weakness in industrial production.

Asia-Pacific: JGB yields continue to grind higher.

Food for Thought: Here are the largest metro populations globally:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Real consumer spending edged higher in August.

Japan: The Tankan report topped expectations, with companies reporting improved business conditions in manufacturing and services.

Commodities: Nickel prices hit the lowest level since 2021.

Energy: The US rig count continues to trend lower.

Equities: Stock market valuations drive longer-term performance.

Food for Thought: US EV sales:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The GDP-GDI divergence (see definition) remains a concern.

The United Kingdom: UK stocks and bonds have been highly correlated.

The Eurozone: The rapid money-supply contraction signals weaker economic activity ahead

Energy: US gasoline futures fell further on Thursday.

Equities: Tight financial conditions suggest that dividend yields should be higher.

Food for Thought: Immigrant founders of unicorn companies in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The market has repriced the expected longer-term fed funds rate trajectory in recent weeks.

The restriction of oil supply is viewed as the largest upside risk to headline inflation.

Energy: Crude oil backwardation is deepening amidst supply concerns (2 charts).

Equities: Equity analysts are assuming a rebound in business activity ahead. However, surging bond yields (driving up mortgage rates), the resumption of student loan payments, and the looming government shutdown will be a headwind for the US economy.

Commodities: Gold is finally succumbing to surging real rates.

The Eurozone: The contraction in the money supply has accelerated.

Food for Thought: Oil consumption adjusted for GDP:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Like the University of Michigan’s report, the Conference Board’s indicator revealed a decline in consumer sentiment this month, with a notable weakness in the expectations measure.

The United Kingdom: Will consumer spending stagnate next year?

China: Here is a look at China’s top 25 real estate companies.

Cryptocurrency: This map shows the status of central bank digital currency (CBDC) research and pilot projects.

Commodities: US feeder cattle futures took a hit on Tuesday (stopping at the 50-day moving average) after the USDA reported limited cash sales.

Food for Thought: The web browser market:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief