The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: While a November rate increase is off the table, the market has been pricing in some probability of a hike in January.

China: China’s 10-year government bond yield remains well below the US equivalent.

The Eurozone: The PMI report showed a deepening contraction in the euro-area business activity this month.

Emerging Markets:  Investors have been rotating out of the broad EM equity ETF (EEM) into the EM ex-China ETF (EMXC).

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin rallied from oversold levels and is approaching initial resistance near $35K.

Energy: Floating storage of crude oil is down sharply as Iran liquidates its stockpiles.

Commodities: Cocoa prices are surging.

Food for Thought: AI platform website visits:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

Rates: The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and its 200-day moving average is the most extreme since its cycle peak in 1981.

The Treasury curve continues to flatten.

Equities: According to SentimenTrader, the S&P 500 sector breadth is at the widest spread in about 70 years.

The United States: The tightening in US financial conditions since the September FOMC meeting is equivalent to some 80 basis points worth of Fed rate hikes, according to Goldman.

The Eurozone: Forecasters expect the ECB to keep rates higher for longer.

Commodities: It’s been a great couple of weeks for gold.

China: The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index hit its lowest level since 2019.

Food for Thought: Grocery delivery users:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Initial jobless claims neared multi-year lows last week.

Japan: Here is the core CPI.

Energy: US crude oil production has risen substantially in recent weeks.

Equities: Market breadth has deteriorated again.

Credit: According to Goldman, US private debt borrowers are unlikely to get any relief on their funding costs after the dramatic increase in interest expenses incurred over the past few quarters.

Food for Thought: Auto insurance inflation:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Bear steepening continues.

This has been a challenging year for existing-home sales.

Rates: The drawdown in longer-dated Treasuries now exceeds 50%.

The Eurozone: Euro-area bond yields are climbing, with the French 10-year rate reaching the highest level in over a decade.

China: Market rates are rising, which further tightens China’s financial conditions. Here is the 10-year yield:

Asia-Pacific: The Australian employment report was disappointing, revealing a significant drop in the number of full-time positions.

Food for Thought: Adoption of new technologies:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Industrial production also surprised to the upside, with robust gains in manufacturing output.

The United Kingdom: The payrolls estimate declined again, pointing to a softening labor market.

Commodities: The global corn market is expected to be in surplus next year, according to Capital Economics.

Equities: November is typically a strong month for inflows into equity ETFs and mutual funds.

Credit: The European high-yield market has a greater share of debt maturing in three years relative to the US.

Rates: According to Capital Economics, Treasury yields are peaking.

Food for Thought: Union membership as a share of employment in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The number of states with significant increases in continuing jobless claims keeps rising.

Canada: The BoC business survey indicator deteriorated further in Q3.

Equities: Valuations based on the 24-month earnings projections remain decoupled from real rates.

Emerging Markets: EM equities appear fairly valued, unlike the US, which could bolster higher relative returns over the next five years.

Rates: Treasury fund inflows tend to accelerate at the end of rate hiking cycles.

Cryptocurrency:  A false report about a BlackRock spot-BTC ETF approval triggered a spike in bitcoin toward $30K on Monday.

Food for Thought: Companies are increasingly concerned about shoplifting.

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The October U. Michigan consumer sentiment indicator declined more than anticipated.

China: Capital outflows persist.

Commodities: Gold surged last week on geopolitical uncertainty but hit resistance at the 200-day moving average.

Energy: The US oil rig count registered a rare increase last week.

Equities: The “big tech” concentration is powering the S&P 500 profit growth estimates.

Global Developments: Wage growth is slowing.

Food for Thought: Definitions of “financially comfortable” and “wealthy” across US metro areas:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The September CPI report topped expectations, suggesting that the Fed’s effort to curb inflation remains a work in progress.

The United Kingdom: The monthly GDP index was up slightly in August.

Commodities: It was a good week for gold, bolstered by the unfolding developments in the Middle East

Energy: US crude oil inventories surged last week.

Equities: Bullish sentiment is in the bottom decile for the first time in almost a year.

Rates: Stagflation environments are typically negative for Treasuries.

Food for Thought: Music piracy:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: At this point, the market does not expect a rate hike in November.

Equities: Have systematic strategies/investors oversold during the market pullback?

The Eurozone: According to Goldman’s indicator, euro-area financial conditions haven’t been this tight since the GFC.

Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s trade surplus surged to a record high  as exports unexpectedly climbed above last year’s level.

Energy: Crude oil prices are retreating from earlier gains that were spurred by the surge in Middle East violence.

Credit: The debt maturity walls for the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 look very different.

Food for Thought: A rebound in IT spending expectations:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The NFIB small business sentiment indicator declined last month.

The United Kingdom: The leading indicator of house prices in the UK has diverged from that of Sweden.

Asia-Pacific: Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey expectations index surprised to the downside.

Commodities: US orange juice futures continue to hit record highs.

Equities: The current market bounce does not appear to show a lot of short covering.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury term premium turned positive for the second time since 2016.

Food for Thought: Missing school (2 charts):

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief