The Daily Shot Brief – November 22nd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Philly Fed’s NBOS index, which monitors activity among the region’s services companies, continues to reflect subdued performance.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

 

The United Kingdom: The official measure of home prices has been remarkably resilient.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

China: The stock market bounce wasn’t sustained.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Binance’s CEO stepped down.

Source: @WSJ

 

Commodities: Cocoa prices continue to hit multi-decade highs.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Goldman expects share buybacks to drive net equity demand next year.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @dailychartbook

 

Food for Thought: Median student debt by college major:

Source: Visual Capitalist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 21st, 2023

Greetings,

 

Equities: Main US stock market indices are now in overbought territory.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: When will the Treasury curve inversion end? Here is a forecast from BofA.

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi

 

The United States: The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) has recorded its 19th consecutive monthly decline.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Risk premia in equities and corporate bonds remain resilient despite softer economic conditions.

Source: ECB
Source: ECB

 

Asia-Pacific: Asian currencies are surging (the second panel shows the Taiwan dollar).

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: The markets cheered the defeat of the Peronist government in Argentina’s presidential election.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Thanksgiving dinner inflation:

Source: @WSJ  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 20th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Consumers view the current buying climate for houses as the worst in recent history.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

More Americans are reporting challenges in obtaining credit.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities:  The last correction wasn’t unusual.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

China: The renminbi is rebounding.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets  Read the full article

 

Emerging Markets: Risk appetite is rising in the EM FX market.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Here are EU companies with the highest profit per employee.

Source: @TheDailyShot

 

Food for Thought: Generative AI is sending shockwaves through the online freelancing world:

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 17th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Initial jobless claims are near the lowest levels in recent years.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: The UK stands out when it comes to foreign direct investment.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Cryptocurrency: It has been a tough week for cryptos, with XRP underperforming top peers.

Source: FinViz

 

Commodities: US wheat futures continue to trend lower.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Analysts continue to downgrade their Q4 earnings estimates.

Source: Yardeni Research

 

Food for Thought: EV sales in the US:

Source: Heatmap

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 16th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States:  More firms are reporting expensive financing as a problem.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Mortgage applications edged higher again as mortgage rates ease from multi-year highs.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Bullish options bets on small caps are hitting record highs.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is up almost 130% year-to-date.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: India’s trade gap hit a record high as imports surge.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Indian Express  Read full article

 

The United Kingdom: The UK CPI report was a bit softer than expected.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Food for Thought: Here are the largest tea exporters:

Source: @TheDailyShot

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 14th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: It appears that core inflation is settling around 3%, which is a concern for the Fed.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Equities: The earnings revision breadth has worsened for both large and small caps.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research; @dailychartbook

 

Small caps continue to widen their underperformance.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: US reserve balances have been rising as the Fed’s RRP facility balances dip below $1 trillion.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets  Read full article

 

The Eurozone: The rotation into longer-dated (higher-yielding) deposits has been reducing the money supply.

Source: @skhanniche

 

China: The decline in shadow bank financing could weigh on infrastructure investment despite recent stabilization.

Source: BCA Research

 

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “greed” territory after spending most of the past two months in the “fear” zone.

Source: Alternative.me

 

Food for Thought: K-12 school shootings:

Source: @TheDailyShot

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 13th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: US consumer sentiment declined again this month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: The Rightmove index showed home prices declining further this month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: Housing is becoming a smaller part of China’s economy.

Source: @economics

 

Energy: Clean energy shares remain under pressure.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Cyclicals continue to outperform defensives.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: Treasury net issuance will remain elevated.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Food for Thought: US college admissions test scores:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 10th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Healthcare workers, public school teachers, and restaurant/hotel workers drove a large portion of the job gains this year.

Source: ING

 

The United Kingdom: The GDP report was a bit better than expected, with September growth boosted by services.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: Here is a look at business and household financing rates in the Eurozone.

Source: ECB

 

Commodities: Flash memory prices are rebounding.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Retail investors don’t seem to be chasing the current rally.

Source: Vanda Research

 

Credit: Business loans held on banks’ balance sheets are now down on a year-over-year basis.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: The most-spoken language in each state besides English and Spanish:

Source: Visual Capitalist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The yield curve inversion has intensified in the past few days.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The Nasdaq Composite has been up for nine consecutive trading sessions.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Short-term inflation expectations are rebounding.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Energy: Brent crude is below $80/bbl.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: OilPrice.com  Read full article

 

China: China is in deflation as food prices sink.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Emerging Markets: The Philippine GDP topped expectations last quarter.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @economics  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Wealth per capita globally:

Source: Visual Capitalist  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Tight bank lending standards indicate high recession odds.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Europe: The Czech koruna has been sagging, with EUR/CZK maintaining the uptrend channel.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Gold and oil have been highly correlated in recent days.

Source: Robert Fullem, Bloomberg

 

Energy: Energy shares have been under pressure in recent days.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The correlation between stocks and bonds remains elevated.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: China’s holdings of Treasuries continue to decline alongside the Fed’s QT.

Source: SOM Macro Strategies

 

Food for Thought: Contributions to CO2 emissions:

Source: @climate

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.