The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Student loans held by the federal government declined further on a year-over-year basis due in part to debt forgiveness.

Europe: Switzerland’s central bank continues to shrink its balance sheet.

Emerging Markets: Here is Colombia’s core inflation.

Commodities: US wheat futures are rebounding.

Equities: US stocks have outperformed international shares by over 10% year-to-date.

Credit: This chart shows the number of US Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings.

Rates: Reserve balances are climbing despite the Fed’s QT (which tends to be a tailwind for stocks).

Food for Thought: US home buyers’ average age:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

 

Energy: Brent crude declined sharply on Wednesday as the US gasoline inventory build boosted concerns about weakening demand.

Commodities: Sugar futures are plunging. Declining crude oil prices pressure the ethanol market, prompting global sugar mills to shift their focus from ethanol to sugar production. This change tends to increase sugar supplies.

Credit: Blackstone’s mortgage REIT is in Muddy Waters’ crosshairs.

Rates: Options bets on a further rally in TLT (iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF) have surged.

Equities: The S&P 500 typically struggles when the Fed is easing into tight credit conditions.

Emerging Markets: India’s stock market capitalization hit a record high.

Japan: JGB yields surged in response to a potential BOJ rate hike.

Food for Thought: Share of global semiconductor production:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: October job openings surprised to the downside, suggesting that labor market imbalances continue to ease.

The United Kingdom: Company closures have been outpacing business creation.

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s retail sales growth has stalled.

Commodities: The correction is sugar futures continues.

Equities: Share buybacks have accelerated, …

… but are still below last year’s levels year-to-date.

Rates: JP Morgan’s active clients are very bullish on Treasuries.

Food for Thought: North Koreans escaping to South Korea:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The GDP-GDI divergence has reached extreme levels. Could recent GDP data be overstating the true extent of the US economic growth?

Equities:  US investors have been willing to pay a large premium for rising, high-quality profits this year.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds continued to see inflows last week, led by long-bitcoin products.

Rates: Hedge funds have been boosting their bets on rapid-fire Fed rate cuts next year. Too much enthusiasm?

The Eurozone: Amid an already faltering economy, Germany’s ‘debt brake’ may pose a significant additional obstacle to economic growth, intensifying existing headwinds.

Energy: Uranium prices are surging.

Food for Thought: Allocation of defense spending by category:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The ISM Manufacturing PMI surprised to the downside with US factory activity now contracting for thirteen consecutive months.

Equities: The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average.

Investors are nervous about the small-cap outperformance. The Russell 2000 implied volatility index (RVX) has not been following VIX lower.

The Eurozone: Recent Eurozone inflation figures may already be below the ECB’s target of 2%, which could raise the odds of an ECB rate cut as soon as Q1, according to Deutsche Bank.

Emerging Markets: Chile’s manufacturing output exhibited a large upside surprise.

Global Developments: Rate cuts are accelerating, driven by EM central banks.

Food for Thought: Median age by state:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Personal saving as a percentage of disposable income edged higher in October.

The United Kingdom: Companies have been lowering their expectations for price gains.

Japan: The unemployment rate declined in October, but the jobs-to-applicants ratio edged higher.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains firmly in “greed” territory.

Commodities: Asian rice futures have been surging.

Equities: The Dow hit the highest level since early 2022 and is now significantly overbought.

Food for Thought: Americans’ tipping habits:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The November Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve showed that inflation concerns continue to moderate.

Equities: Hedge funds have tilted their exposure toward momentum stocks.

The Eurozone: With inflation falling, the market is pricing in faster ECB rate cuts (2 charts).

Commodities: Dry bulk shipping costs (for cargo such as iron ore) have been surging due to the Panama Canal delays. The bottleneck is most acute for capesize vessels.

Global Developments: Global bond markets are having a good month.

Japan: Retail sales declined sharply.

Food for Thought: Traffic fatalities during holidays:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Markets are pricing in more substantial Fed rate cuts for 2024 (2 charts).

Japan: JGB yields are following Treasuries lower.

Commodities: Chicago milk futures are under pressure.

Energy: US natural gas futures continue to tumble.

Equities: Long-only funds have been reducing their beta to the market.

Food for Thought: A faster way to board an airplane:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States:  Economists upgraded their forecasts for next year’s GDP growth, with no recession expected over the next few quarters.

US financial conditions eased sharply this month, with the largest monthly decline in Goldman’s indicator in recent decades.

Cryptocurrency: Roughly 83% of the total BTC circulating supply is held in profit, similar to the 2021 bull market highs.

Equities: Here are sector earnings growth expectations for 2024.

32% of large-cap mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks this year, with underperformance driven by underallocation to tech megacaps.

Commodities: Iron ore prices extended losses as Beijing jawbones the commodity lower.

Emerging Markets: India’s fiscal deficit is on a downward trend.

Food for Thought: Members of Congress not seeking re-election:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The revised inflation expectations data from the University of Michigan highlight consumers’ concerns about inflation resurgence.

The United Kingdom: The CBI report showed deteriorating industrial goods demand.

Asia-Pacific: After last year’s plateau, South Korea’s household debt is reaching record highs.

Commodities: Gold is trading above $2,000, widening its divergence with US real yields (chart shows inverted 10-year TIPS yield).

Energy: Brent crude is back below $70/bbl.

Equities: Goldman’s sentiment indicator:

Food for Thought: Ultra-processed foods:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief