Greetings, The United States: Easing supply chain bottlenecks point to slowing core goods inflation. The United Kingdom: The BoE’s bond market intervention will end this Friday, which shocked global markets. The volatility in inflation linked-gilts has been extreme. China: Loan growth surged last month as the central bank injected liquidity into the banking system. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 12th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: First, the September jobs report was stronger than expected, delivering another confirmation that the labor market remains tight. Here are the drivers of the unemployment rate. Consumer credit increased more than expected in August, driven by credit cards. Households continue to spend. China: The US semiconductor sales curbs are putting …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 11th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Gasoline prices are going higher as inventories tumble. The Eurozone: Import prices have been surging in Germany. China: China’s consumption of coal is massive. Emerging Markets: Foreigners are pulling out of Turkey’s stocks after piling in a few weeks ago. Equities: Let’s take a look at who owns the US …
Greetings, The United States: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model Q3 growth estimate climbed 2.7% (annualized). The United Kingdom: UK households are holding on to excess savings. Energy: OPEC is cutting production, sending oil prices higher. US gasoline demand surged recently as prices continue to rebound. Equities: More firms issued positive EPS …
Greetings, The United States: August’s job openings report surprised to the downside, an indication that the labor market is finally starting to ease. From the Fed’s perspective, this is good news. However, there is still a long way to go to bring the labor market balance to pre-COVID levels. Here is the number …
Greetings, The United States: The combination of faster supplier deliveries and shrinking order backlogs in the US ISM manufacturing PMI report points to tighter corporate margins and lower PPI. Europe: The Swiss central bank tightened monetary policy by sharply reducing liquidity last month. Asia – Pacific: Singapore appears to be entering a recession. …
Greetings, The United States: US consumer spending continues to climb. The Fed’s efforts to slow demand have not had the desired effect thus far. The United Kingdom: The UK government is backtracking on some of its tax cut pledges. The pound rose modestly but gave up most of the gains. The Eurozone: …
Greetings, The United States: To begin, initial jobless claims hit another multi-year low, again running significantly below pre-COVID levels (2nd panel). Despite the headwinds, companies are unwilling to lay off employees (for now) given that it’s been so challenging and expensive to hire/retain workers. Multiple leading indicators suggest that inflation should be lower. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 30th, 2022”
Greetings, The United Kingdom: The BoE terminal rate (maximum expected rate in this cycle) surged after the budget announcement. Energy: The gas pipeline sabotage sent European gas prices higher. Presumably, the goal of this sabotage was to deprive Europe of natural gas flows before the winter heating season begins so gas rationing could swing …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 29th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: New home sales were shockingly strong last month. This improvement will likely be reversed shortly. Surging Treasury yields made commercial real estate much less attractive. As the economy slows, cap rate increases will be driven by lower property prices. The capitalization rate is calculated by dividing a property’s net operating …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 28th, 2022”
