The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Initial jobless claims show no signs of increasing layoffs, suggesting companies are in a holding pattern-hiring less but not resorting to layoffs either.

The Eurozone: The Spain/France 10-year yield spread turned negative for the first time since 2007 (2 charts).

China: Stocks continue to surge.

Cryptocurrency: Traditional assets have experienced higher-than-usual volatility compared to Bitcoin over the past year.

Equities: The S&P 500 hit its 42nd record high of 2024 and is now up almost 34% year-over-year.

Rates: Treasury funds are seeing outflows.

Food for Thought: Countries with the highest median wealth per capita:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The 30-year mortgage rate has fallen for eight consecutive weeks.

China: China’s stocks continue to surge.

Emerging Markets: Argentina’s economic activity jumped in July.

Energy: Brent crude held resistance at $75/bbl, falling sharply on news from Libya and Saudi Arabia.

Equities: Small-cap fundamentals are yet to recover.

Europe: Sweden’s central bank eased policy again, lowering its projected rate path.

Food for Thought: Share of Americans who read or listened to books in 2023:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment index surprised to the downside, reflecting growing concerns about the labor market.

Asia-Pacific: Asian currencies are surging, boosted by China’s latest wave of monetary easing.

China: The PBoC implemented its largest rate cut in years on its one-year term lending facility rate as part of a broad-based package of monetary easing measures.

Equities: Shares of US companies with substantial exposure to China outperformed after the PBoC announced a broad package of monetary easing.

Rates: Here is a look at privately held Treasuries by maturity.

Food for Thought: The most unreliable airports in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

China: With investors significantly underweight in China’s equities, stocks surged in response to the new stimulus measures.

Asia-Pacific: The RBA maintained the current interest rates, and Governor Michele Bullock indicated that a rate hike was not actively deliberated, even though inflation continues to persist. Bond yields dropped.

The Eurozone: Total business activity contracted at the Eurozone level.

Equities: What are the drivers of the current rally? This chart is based on Bloomberg’s attribution model.

Credit: Small caps are facing a steeper debt maturity wall than large caps.

The United States: Around 45,000 dockworkers at major ports along the East and Gulf coasts are threatening to strike in October. A prolonged strike could lead to a spike in prices by disrupting supply chains.

Food for Thought: America’s favorite car brands by generation:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: US financial conditions have eased sharply in recent weeks, with much of the September easing attributed to lower rates.

The United Kingdom: Retail sales strengthened further last month, topping expectations.

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 23th, 2024”

Greetings,

The United States: Seasonally adjusted indices:

The United Kingdom: The pound hit its highest level since 2022.

Europe: Germany’s EV sales tumbled.

Cryptocurrency: There was a relatively minor spike in short liquidations as BTC rose above $60K.

Equities: Historically, the first Fed rate cut has been associated with corrections in the S&P 500, particularly within the first six months after a 50 bps cut, according to Fairlead Strategies

Credit: Investment-grade bond funds continue to see inflows.

Food for Thought: Computational capacity of the fastest supercomputer:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage applications are nearing a year-over-year gain for the first time since 2021.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s central bank raised rates after a period of monetary easing as the economy strengthens. This type of reversal gives many central bankers nightmares.

Asia-Pacific: Has Japan’s stock market decline been overly steep, considering the strong earnings performance?

Commodities: Sugar prices continue to surge, up 11% over the past three days.

Equities: Fund managers remain pessimistic about global growth, in contrast to the ongoing stock market rally.

Credit: How did the credit markets respond to the Fed’s 50 bps rate cut?

Food for Thought: Impact of high temperatures on European birth rates:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Real retail sales moved higher last month.

Japan: Both imports and exports declined last month.

Commodities: Coffee prices continue to hit multi-year highs.

Commodities: Capital Economics expects oil demand to peak around 2030.

Equities: Risk appetite among global fund managers declined this month.

Alternatives: Investors have been pulling capital from multi-manager hedge funds.

Food for Thought: Betting market probabilities for the 2025 Super Bowl champion:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Market expectations for the pace of rate cuts over the next 12 months suggest a recessionary outlook.

The Eurozone: The 1-day EUR/USD risk reversal hit the highest level since the 2020 COVID shock ahead of the FOMC decision.

China: Goldman has downgraded its 2024 growth forecast for China, with the country now expected to miss its GDP growth target for this year.

Commodities: Gold remains decoupled from real rates amid extensive central bank buying.

Equities: The market is pricing in higher volatility for this FOMC day than at any point since March of last year.

Global Developments: Real yields across major economies have lost significant momentum.

Food for Thought: Percentage of US adults facing challenges with household expenses by state:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The market is now pricing in a 60% chance of a 50 bps rate cut this month.

Japan: Speculative bets on yen futures hit the highest level since 2016.

Equities: Bull markets have been getting longer since the 1990s.

Commodities: Coffee futures hit the highest level since 2011. The two stories below offer background on the recent strength.

Energy: Brent crude positioning is now bearish.

Emerging Markets: Russia’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates last week.

Global Developments: Here is the impact of a hike in tariffs on the largest economies.

Food for Thought: Voter eligibility by generation in US presidential elections:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief