The Daily Shot Brief – June 27th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing release shows that factories are now cutting prices.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: IPO activity is rebounding.

Source: Goldman Sachs
Source: @axios  Read full article

 

Credit: Multifamily debt delinquencies have been rising.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Last week witnessed the largest surge in speculators’ bets on British pound futures ever recorded.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Inflation is narrowing across the Eurozone.

Source: BCA Research

 

Emerging Markets: The Argentine peso devaluation is accelerating.

Source: @TheTerminal; Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Food for Thought: Here are space launches by company:

Source: @chartrdaily

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – June 26th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Existing home sales remain depressed but were slightly above forecasts last month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: A policy error?

Source: BCA Research

 

China: China’s currency and stocks are down as the market reopens after the holidays.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: The rise in renewable electricity generation could substantially boost demand for copper. (2 charts)

Source: Alpine Macro
Source: Alpine Macro

 

Equities: Last week’s market pullback was consistent with historical patterns.

Source: @RyanDetrick

 

Food for Thought: Declining demand for pizza delivery:

Source: @CivicScience

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – June 22nd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United Kingdom: Short-term rates continue to surge, with markets pricing multiple BoE rate hikes ahead.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Elevated wage growth and extreme energy price shock explain why UK CPI has been outpacing other economies.

Source: Capital Economics

 

The United States: The supply of homes for sale continues to sink.

Source: Redfin

 

Equities: The Nasdaq 100 trailing PE ratio jumped by almost 50% over the past six months – a highly unusual move.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: With many existing CLOs ending their reinvestment periods, new CLOs will have no shortage of product to buy.

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

 

Emerging Markets: Mexico stands to gain from the US-China decoupling.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Commodities: US grains continue to surge as crop conditions deteriorate. Here is Bloomberg’s grain index:

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Here is New Zealand’s sheep-to-people ratio:

Source: @chartrdaily

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – June 21st, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The seasonally-adjusted gain in housing starts was the highest in decades

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

The United Kingdom: The CPI report delivered yet another shocker, with core inflation breaching 7%. We will have more on the inflation report tomorrow.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: South Africa’s leading indicator tumbled in April.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index entered “greed” territory on Tuesday.

Source: Alternative.me

 

Commodities: Shares of gold miners took a hit on Tuesday.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: US stocks’ rolling 10-year Sharpe ratio crossed above one before entering the recent bear market. This is consistent with previous bubble peaks.

Source: @MebFaber

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, the change in workers relocating for a new job:

Source: @jeffsparshott

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – June 20th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Homebuilder sentiment improved again this month as sales expectations climbed.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The Nasdaq tends to rise into the final Fed rate hike.

Source: MUFG Securities

 

Credit: So far, there has been no liquidity drain since the debt ceiling deal. According to Deutsche Bank, the increase in T-Bill issuance has been (roughly) fully absorbed by a rotation of liquidity away from the Fed’s RRP facility.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

The Eurozone: The bounce in EUR/USD in recent weeks has not been matched by interest rate differentials.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Japan: The yen typically appreciates during recessions.

Source: MRB Partners

 

Commodities: How does El Niño impact grain crops?

Source: Oxford Economics

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, these are the top seven countries international students in the US are from:

Source: @TheDailyShot

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – June 16th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Jobless claims remain elevated relative to last year.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: AP News

 

The Eurozone: The euro surged on hawkish comments from the ECB.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: Youth unemployment remains elevated, dampening consumer confidence.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: MRB Partners

 

Cryptocurrency: BlackRock filed paperwork to form a spot-bitcoin ETF.

Source: CoinDesk

 

Equities: Retail investor purchases appear to have peaked for now.

Source: Vanda Research

 

Credit: Regional bank spreads are drifting lower but still elevated.

Source: @WSJ

 

Food for Thought: Recently IPO’d tech companies’ net profit margins:

Source: @genuine_impact

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – June 15th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States:  The Fed delivered a “hawkish pause” this month, with the dot-plot signaling another 50 bps of rate hikes this year. Rate projections also moved higher for 2024 and 2025.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

The headline PPI surprised to the downside, with producer prices declining in May.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan:  Will the BoJ relax its yield curve control as inflation runs hot?

Source: MRB Partners

 

Asia-Pacific: New Zealand entered a technical recession in Q1.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Credit: Deutsche Bank predicts substantial credit downgrades in CLO collateral this year.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Commodities: Have US cattle futures finally peaked?

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Crypto liquidity is well off its peak in 2021.

Source: BCA Research

 

Food for Thought: Semiconductor node size:

Source: The Economist Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – June 14th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States:  The CPI report was roughly in line with expectations, …

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

… with core inflation remaining stubbornly high.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: This chart shows the percentage of businesses conducting remote meetings across the EU.

Source: Eurostat

 

Commodities: Here is a look at top lithium producers.

Source: Visual Capitalist

 

Credit: CRE credit supply and demand:

Source: Wells Fargo Securities

 

Global Developments: The Fed is priced to cut far more than other G10 central banks.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

 

Food for Thought: Amounts wagered on sports events since June 2018 by state:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – June 13th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States:  Gains in rental costs have been slowing on a year-over-year basis.

Source: Redfin

 

Subdued demand for cardboard boxes suggests a deceleration in economic activity.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Europe: Switzerland’s central bank continues to reduce liquidity in the financial system.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: The global oil market remains in surplus.

Source: PGM Global

 

Equities: Market breadth has been weak.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Credit: Investors are now overweight corporate bonds.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Food for Thought: Mass incarceration in the US:

Source: @TheDailyShot

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – June 12th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States:  Household savings remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Europe: Norway’s CPI report was a shocker.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @ottummelas, @economics

 

The market now expects the Fed to complete its rate cuts near 3.5% (in H2 2025).

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: Saudi Arabia’s PIF is expected to become the largest sovereign wealth fund by 2030.

Source: @financialtimes

 

Cryptocurrency: It was a tough week for crypto.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Deutsche Bank’s aggregate positioning indicator now shows overweight positioning.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Food for Thought: Average hourly wages for US teens:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.