Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with the FOMC decision, which, despite the 25bps rate hike, was more dovish than anticipated. While some economists expected the Fed to tilt toward four rate hikes in 2018, the ‘dot plot’ rate projections were unchanged for this year (still three hikes). As expected, the guidance for …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 21st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The US could be running a $2 trillion annual budget deficit in less than a decade. That’s a lot of new debt for the market to absorb each year. Equity Markets: Proforma earnings add-backs for M&A deals have risen sharply in recent years. China: The China SMI …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 20th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Trade-war scenarios aside, economists expect the US unemployment rate to fall further as fewer workers enter/reenter the labor force from the ‘sidelines.’ Equity Markets: Most analysts don’t see a tech bubble because valuations do not appear to be significantly richer than the S&P 500. China: China’s growing fiscal impulse is …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 19th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The federal debt has jumped $1.2 trillion since the debt ceiling has been lifted. Equity Markets: Equity ETFs saw record inflows last week. Japan: Here is the breakdown of Japan’s PPI. Energy Markets: Energy stocks have reversed their underperformance over the past week, finishing in line …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 16th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The NY Fed’s Nowcast model is downgrading the Q1 GDP growth. And this model is yet to incorporate the recent weakness in retail sales. Equity Markets: Companies with strong earnings (the Bloomberg Pure Growth Portfolio) have done tremendously well this year. Rates: Economists continue to raise their …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 15th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: According to Moody’s, the new tax law “significantly reduces tax incentives of homeownership.” What will be the impact on the housing market? Equity Markets: There are not many asset classes that could protect against market volatility. Even the traditional safe-haven assets such as the yen or gold are …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 14th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The inflation indicator based on US news flow hit the highest level since 2006. The prices charged by small businesses, as reported by the NFIB survey, point to higher inflation ahead. Equity Markets: How do different market strategies (factors) perform in different GDP growth environments? Emerging Markets: Here …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 12th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US consumer and business confidence continues to climb. This chart combines multiple sentiment indicators. Equity Markets: The chart below shows the longer-term implied volatility curve steepening, making it increasingly expensive to maintain long-vol positions. Cryptocurrency: Large crypto exchanges are doing well. The Eurozone: Below is the …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 12th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: How much will a broad tariff on Chinese imports impact prices of domestically produced consumer products? Here is the breakdown by sector. Equity Markets: Company insiders are very bullish. China:The PBoC is increasingly reliant on open-market operations to set monetary policy (as opposed to the overnight rate …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 9th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: How tight is the labor market? Small businesses are hiring fewer workers than they have been planning. Will US labor force participation improve further as wages rise? Equity Markets: US equity mutual funds have experienced redemptions each month over the past year. China: China has accelerated its spending …
