Greetings, The United States: Below is the breakdown of the core CPI between goods and services. A weak US dollar is likely to ease the persistent goods deflation. Global Developments: Below is a comparison of leading indicators for the largest economies. Credit: This map shows the Moody’s general obligation (municipal debt) rating for each …
Greetings, The United States: Wages are rising faster at smaller US firms. Rates: The market-implied probability of a third Fed rate hike this year dipped below 40%. Credit: The Moody’s stressed/distressed corporate credit universe has been gradually shrinking. Equity Markets: Valuation models show diminishing equity risk premium (vs. bonds). Fed officials have expressed …
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the full breakdown of US core inflation. Rates: Many fund managers view the start of the Fed’s balance sheet unwind (quantitative tightening) as a non-event. Commodities: Sugar futures have bounced off the lows. Equity Markets: Based on seasonal patterns, this is the time of the summer when …
Greetings, The United States: According to IHS Markit, slower retail sales are forcing US businesses to cut back on consumer goods orders. – Here is the US Sales Manager Index (SMI) summary from World Economics. Gains in business confidence have slowed. Business activity and staffing levels continue to show improvement. The United Kingdom: Economists are …
Greetings, The United States: According to IHS Markit, US business optimism continues to improve. – Nonetheless, more economists now see downside risks to US growth. Bitcoin:The major cryptocurrencies seem to have stabilized for now. Here is Bitcoin. Equity Markets: US companies with higher exposure to China have outperformed. The market continues to ignore the risk …
Greetings, The United States: Below is a long-term chart of the “milk, eggs, and bread” basket (red) broken into the three components (in dollars). This basket is now the cheapest in a decade. – Here is a summary breakdown. Rates: As central banks taper their QE purchases and the Fed starts shrinking its balance sheet (first …
