Greetings, The United States: Here is Goldman’s Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for the US. The Eurozone: There is still a deficit of new Eurozone bonds in the domestic private debt market. Rates: Swap spreads continue to recover (more on the topic later). Here is a note from Jim Vogel (FTN Financial). Swap spreads are …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 5th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US housing affordability is worsening as a result of higher mortgage rates and housing prices. And there is a good chance that affordability will deteriorate further. Here is one such scenario. The Eurozone: The Spanish and Italian bond trading activity spiked in May. Rates: The market will get …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 1st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: With all the robust economic data coming out last week, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q2 growth forecast climbed further. The Eurozone: The market-based ECB’s rate trajectory has shifted lower after the political jitters in Italy. Rates: The repo volume is climbing again. Equity Markets: May saw inflows …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 1st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: We should see a strong bounce in the ISM manufacturing index which comes out later today. Here is a comparison of the May regional Fed surveys (weighted average) with the ISM index. The Eurozone: Does the Fed-ECB balance sheet differential point to a bounce in the euro? Rates: …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 31st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Below is a summary of the regional Fed survey changes in May (GSAI = Goldman Sachs Activity Indicator). The ISM’s national manufacturing index will show a bounce this month (reported June 1st). The Eurozone: The banking system’s persistent exposure to government debt (linking financial and sovereign risks) worries investors. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 30th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The aging population continues to be a drag on labor force participation. The Eurozone: There is plenty of silly talk about “Itexit” on social media. Not only would Italy’s €2 trillion+ debt be redenominated (effectively default) in such an event (devastating the global banking system), but the rest of the …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 29th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Inflation is expected to rise modestly going forward. Here are a couple of forecasts. The Eurozone: What will be the impact of higher interest rates on the Eurozone’s largest economies? Energy: Money managers have been boosting their bets on US gasoline futures. Will we see a substantial pullback …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 24th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Why has it been so hard for the CBO to forecast the US budget deficit? The Eurozone: The divergence between the Eurozone and the US manufacturing PMI doesn’t bode well for the euro. Energy: This chart compares the decline in output for legacy wells with the production growth in new …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 24th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Economists are still waiting to see further improvements in capital goods orders. The Eurozone: This chart compares labor productivity for Italy, Spain, and Germany. Energy: Here are some scenarios for Iran’s oil exports going forward. Equity Markets: Investment banking revenues in equities have improved in the first …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 23rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The chart below shows the Goldman Sachs Wage Tracker and the Wage Survey Leading Indicator. All signs point to higher pay for Americans in the months to come. The Eurozone: This chart provides the consumer confidence trends in the Eurozone. Energy: Crude oil markets are expected to be in …
