Greetings, The United States: With more household members employed and working longer hours, the overall household paycheck growth remains above 4% per year. Equity Markets: Here are some updates on the current earnings season. • Earnings surprises: Commodities: The rise in lumber prices has been impressive. Here is a 30-year chart. Credit: Corporate debt …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 3rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Here is an updated “recession dashboard” from Credit Suisse. Equity Markets: April saw meaningful inflows into US large-cap funds. Commodities: Electric car production will significantly boost demand for copper, nickel, lithium, and cobalt. Credit: Leveraged loan balances are approaching that of high-yield bonds. The last time …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 2nd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Will the new tax law curtail foreign investment by raising taxes on foreign-owned US companies? (BEAT = base erosion and anti-abuse tax.) Equity Markets: The correlation between bond yields and stocks has broken down. This is a problem for many portfolios that hold both asset classes. Commodities: As …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 1st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US manufacturing orders have been showing weak capital investment growth. However, companies are reporting higher CapEx in the first quarter. Part of the reason for the disconnect is that the latest CapEx increases have been dominated by tech firms investing in items such as data centers, servers, communication lines/equipment, …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 27th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Unlike in many parts of the world, US small and medium-sized businesses are a substantial component of the economy. Equity Markets: Analysts are boosting US corporate earnings forecasts again. The United Kingdom: Consumer sentiment took a hit. Commodities: Grain prices are consolidating. Emerging Markets: Argentina’s central …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 27th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: As discussed previously, the end of the inventory build has now slowed imports, reducing the US trade deficit. Equity Markets: Banks’ equities trading revenue has risen this year amid higher volatility. The United Kingdom: The retail sales growth is also trending lower. Energy Markets: US natural gas in …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 26th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The US total labor income (defined below) is a leading indicator for consumer spending, and it accelerated last month. Equity Markets: Below is a scatter plot of PE ratios vs. Treasury yields. The United Kingdom: This chart shows the decline in EU citizens migrating to the UK. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 25th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The spread between Conference Board’s “Jobs Plentiful” and “Jobs Hard to Get” indices points to a faster wage growth ahead. The voluntary quits rate tells a similar story. Equity Markets: US Q1 corporate earnings growth has outperformed that of other developed economies (EAFE). The United Kingdom: The UK’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 24th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Is the recent improvement in CapEx at risk now? Below we have some data from the NFIB (small businesses) as well as the Philly Fed. Equity Markets: The “M&A targets” basket has been outperforming. All that corporate cash has to go somewhere. The United Kingdom: The Bank of …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 23rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Economists are convinced that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE, will reach the 2% target this year and move beyond that level over the next couple of years. Equity Markets: The US market typically trades sideways ahead of the mid-term elections. The United Kingdom: According …
