The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

Rates: The 3x leveraged long-term Treasury ETF is experiencing massive inflows, indicating that some investors believe Treasury yields are peaking.

Credit: High-yield bond spreads are the tightest they’ve been since before the GFC.

Cryptocurrency: Short liquidations continued to spike after BTC/USD accelerated past $80K.

The United States: Stocks that tend to benefit from higher inflation have been outperforming.

Equities: Global investors remain enthusiastic about US equities.

China: Economic momentum is starting to improve.

Commodities: Lithium miners are cutting production, sending prices higher.

Food for Thought: The US military is grappling with mounting recruitment challenges.

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

Cryptocurrency: BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF assets have surpassed those of the firm’s gold fund.

Equities: Goldman’s sentiment indicator soared last week and is now deep in “stretched” territory.

Commodities: Iron ore is down this morning, with the market disappointed by Beijing’s stimulus announcement.

Global Developments: How do equity indices respond to tariff announcements?

The United States: The FOMC has been assigning a lower upside risk to inflation. Is the central bank too complacent?

The Eurozone: French shares continue to widen their underperformance vs. Germany.

Asia-Pacific: Japan’s current account surplus tanked in September but showed strong performance for the first half of the fiscal year.

Food for Thought: Cuba’s crude oil imports:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

Equities: It was the best post-election session for stocks on record.

The S&P 600 (small caps) finally surpassed its 2021 record high, marking its largest one-day gain since 2020.

Credit: Munis took a hit on Wednesday as the outlook for lower taxes and higher deficits makes muni debt less attractive.

Commodities: Precious metals declined as the dollar surged on Wednesday.

The United States: Market-based inflation expectations surged on anticipated accommodative fiscal policy under Trump.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s central bank raised rates by 50 bps amid strong economic growth (boosted by fiscal stimulus) and persistent inflation. Some global central banks (including the Fed) see this reversal as a nightmare scenario, risking a loss of credibility.

Global Developments: Here is a look at Wednesday’s currency market performance.

Food for Thought: Demographic shifts in support for Trump since 2020:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States:  Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election, and the Senate has flipped to the GOP.

• Betting market probabilities:

The United Kingdom: The final UK services PMI for October was revised upward.

Asia-Pacific: Wage growth eased in Q3.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s service sector is growing rapidly.

Equities: With the US dollar surging, here’s an overview of equity sector sensitivity to the dollar.

Food for Thought: Natural and lab-grown diamonds sold in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Equities: Equity inflows have been exceptionally strong for an election year.

Cryptocurrency: Weak online search activity for ‘bitcoin’ indicates limited direct retail participation in the recent rally, …

… with gains primarily fueled by fund flows.

Rates: This chart shows bond volatility premiums ahead of the US elections.

Commodities: China still consumes more than half of global commodities. This is compared to a less than 30% share of global commodity demand in 2005, according to ANZ Research.

The Eurozone: French bond yields are now above that of Spain.

Emerging Markets: This scatterplot displays the rate differentials of various EM currencies against the USD versus their implied volatility, illustrating potential carry versus risk.

Food for Thought: Time taken for AP to call each state’s presidential race in 2020:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The unemployment rate held steady.

The United Kingdom: The current level of fiscal loosening is the highest since the pandemic.

Commodities: Speculative accounts have shifted to a net long position in US corn futures.

Equities: The outperformance of cyclicals over defensives has diverged from the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Rates: The Fed’s RRP facility balance hit the lowest level since 2021 as money market funds find better value in T-bills.

Food for Thought: Americans of Puerto Rican origin:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Consumer spending posted solid growth in September.

The United Kingdom: Rate cut expectations have been curtailed somewhat.

Japan: Services inflation has been firmer.

Commodities: Here is October’s performance data.

Equities: Here are the details behind Thursday’s selloff.

Food for Thought: US voter enthusiasm:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: US job openings dropped sharply last month, falling below their pre-COVID peak.

The United Kingdom: Last month’s mortgage approvals topped expectations.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is trading near record highs, testing the next resistance level at $74k.

Equities: The market responded positively to Alphabet’s results, driving shares sharply higher after the close.

Rates: Treasury market implied volatility keeps climbing ahead of the US elections.

Food for Thought: Amazon deforestation:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Equities: Investors are increasingly long on equity futures while also shifting to a net long position in VIX futures, which is unusual.

The United States: Market-based inflation expectations should be heading lower with oil prices.

Commodities: So far, it’s been the best year for gold in decades.

The Eurozone: An improving credit impulse in the Eurozone could bolster economic expansion.

Credit: Cat bonds continue to outperform despite the recent hurricane damage.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin broke above resistance at $70k ahead of the US elections.

Food for Thought: GLP-1 drug candidates in the pipeline:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The combination of rising bond yields and a stronger dollar has been tightening US financial conditions.

Canada: The loonie’s 2-week implied volatility has surged in anticipation of the US elections.

Rates: The resilient economy accounted for roughly half of the recent rise in Treasury yields, which caused markets to pare back large rate cut expectations. The other half is possibly due to election pricing.

Equities: Volatility premium (implied vs. realized) tends to rise ahead of the US presidential elections.

China: Industrial profits softened further in September.

Emerging Markets: EM equity funds are seeing some ouflows.

Commodities: Palladium jumped another 3% on Friday.

Food for Thought: Online casino revenue in New Jersey is closing in on land-based casinos:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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