The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Economists now anticipate a very low November core PCE inflation reading, the Fed’s preferred measure. Both Nomura and Pantheon Macroeconomics project a 0.13% increase.

The United Kingdom: Are markets underestimating the extent of BoE rate cuts expected next year?

China: Lending growth and fixed-asset investments remain weak, although additional stimulus could provide some relief.

Cryptocurrency: Highlighting the speculative frenzy in the crypto market, Fartcoin’s market cap surged to $700 million, surpassing that of a number of US public companies.

Equities: Here is the percentage of S&P 500 members trading above their 200-day moving average.

Credit: Leveraged loan funds continue to see inflows.

Food for Thought: 401-k millionaires at Fidelity:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Equities: The S&P 500 tech mega-cap concentration makes it difficult to outperform the index.

Energy: OPEC continues to cut its projections for global oil demand.

Commodities: Here are Goldman’s scenarios for gold prices over the next year, contingent on Fed rate decisions.

The United States: The CPI diffusion indices continue to show sticky inflation.

The Eurozone: European equities have a higher risk premium than the US.

Emerging Markets: The real and Brazil’s stocks outperformed EM peers on Wednesday following the jumbo 75bps hike by the central bank.

Food for Thought: Types of offshore rigs and platforms categorized by operating depths:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The uncertainty index eased.

Europe: Norway’s underlying inflation moved higher last month.

Cryptocurrency: The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) surpassed $50 billion in assets in just 227 days, achieving this milestone five times faster than the previous record-holder, IEMG, which took 1,323 days. IEFA and VOO reached similar levels in comparable time frames.

Equities: Near-term risk appetite and outlook for US equities among institutional investors remain elevated.

Alternatives: Hedge funds’ returns have fallen short of wealth managers’ projections.

Credit: High-yield new-issue volume increased last week as the window for deal-making this year narrows.

Food for Thought: Perceptions of what qualifies as art among Britons:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Equities: The ratio of assets in long leveraged ETFs to those in short ETFs has reached a record high.

The United States: The Household Survey reported another sharp decline in jobs, even as the Establishment Survey (above) continues to reflect gains.

China: Stocks are up sharply as Beijing announces more fiscal and monetary stimulus.

The Eurozone: Traders have been boosting their bets against the euro.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s political turmoil has deepened, further pressuring the won.

Commodities: Arabica coffee futures hit their highest level in 47 years.

Food for Thought: Visualization of paths taken by an unsteered bicycle in 800 simulations:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Stronger tax withholdings could indicate more robust wage growth.

The United Kingdom: New car registrations improved but remained below 2023 levels last month.

India: Capital Economics expects rate cuts to begin next year.

Cryptocurrency: There was an unusual spike in BTC long positions as the cryptocurrency pulled back from all-time highs.

Equities: Small-cap fund inflows have surged this year.

Food for Thought: Streaming subscriber habits with pauses and returns across US platforms:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The Eurozone: French stocks have not seen this level of underperformance since 2010.

Equities: US fund inflows are hitting extreme levels.

The scatterplot below illustrates forward earnings yield versus implied volatility for different equity factors, comparing expected performance with perceived risk.

Rates: JP Morgan’s clients are increasingly upbeat on Treasuries.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin surpassed the $100k milestone.

Energy: The global crude oil market will be well supplied next year.

The United States: The AEI Housing Center sees home price appreciation at 4.4% in October (YoY), strengthening somewhat in November and December.

Food for Thought: Mobile network speeds by country:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Hiring slowed.

China: The 10-year yield continues to hit record lows.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s factory activity remains in growth mode.

Energy: US natural gas futures have reversed most of the recent gains.

Equities: The Magnificent 7 stocks reached their 50th record high of the year.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield declined as markets pared expectations for rate cuts next year.

Food for Thought: The historical trajectory of child mortality rates across societies:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The Eurozone: The French bond spread over Germany has blown out.

China: The renminbi reached its weakest level against the dollar in over a year.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s President Lula directed his team to include a range of tax relief measures for the poor in the fiscal package introduced late last week, diminishing the plan’s potential to generate much-needed savings. The Brazilian real hit a record low.

Commodities: Coffee futures took a hit as the Brazilian real reached a record low.

Equities: Only small caps are trading at multiples below their 10-year average.

Credit: Corporate debt trades have been massive, fueled by ETF flows.

Food for Thought: Ad content as a share of social media platforms:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The PCE inflation report showed faster price gains in October.

The United Kingdom: EUR/GBP hit the lowest level since early 2022.

China: Stocks are higher on stimulus hopes.

Commodities: US wheat prices remain under pressure.

Equities: Long-duration stocks have been outperforming.

Food for Thought: Median salaries by US government agency:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The number of credit-related comments increased.

The United Kingdom: The CBI report showed weakness in UK retail sales this month.

Cryptocurrency: BTC long-term holders’ realized the profit/loss ratio is at an extreme.

Equities: The forward P/E ratio climbed to 22.5x, indicating elevated valuations.

Rates: Options traders have been placing bearish bets on Treasuries.

Food for Thought: US women lead in college degree completion:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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