Greetings, China: Sovereign credit default swap spreads are starting to rise again. United States: The U. Michigan consumer sentiment index was downgraded from the earlier estimate, pointing to some deterioration in the second half of May. The expectations index (second chart) was lower in May than in April. Households are increasingly uncertain about …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 29th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Large US bankruptcy filings spiked in recent weeks (J.C. Penney, J. Crew, Stage Stores, Neiman Marcus, Hertz, Tuesday Morning, Le Pain Quotidien, etc.) Europe: US banks have been gaining market share across Europe. Energy: US crude oil production continues to decline. Yet, US oil inventories hit a multi-year …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 28th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Mortgage applications for house purchase have fully recovered, hitting a multi-year high. Europe: The EU announced a substantial fiscal measure targeting post-pandemic recovery. Who will benefit the most from the Next Generation EU fund of €750 billion? Commodities: Some analysts continue to predict a return of the commodities supercycle. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 27th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Consumer inflation expectations have diverged from the CPI as a result of higher grocery prices and disruptions in product availability. Eurozone: The economic contraction has been severe, … … and the recovery is expected to be painfully slow. China: The renminbi is weakening on concerns that Beijing will …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 26th, 2020
Greetings, Credit: US companies have issued a record amount of debt, in part to refinance commercial paper (two charts). Equities: Global equity flows have been declining over the past few years as investors pile into bonds. China: According to Goldman Sachs, Beijing’s fiscal stimulus has been more forceful than the headline figures suggest. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 22nd, 2020
Greetings, United States: Improvements in business conditions later this year may not result in stronger hiring. In addition, online search activity suggests that the weekly new claims number is no longer declining. Eurozone: Germans seem to support the French-German proposal to establish an EU relief fund (see story). Here is the support …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 21st, 2020
Greetings, United States: Let’s start with the housing market. Mortgage applications to purchase a home are almost back to 2019 levels. It’s been an impressive rebound. Shares of homebuilders have been outperforming since the market lows. Eurozone: Consumer confidence bounced from the lows. Energy: Crude oil inventories are finally declining. The next …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 20th, 2020
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published next Monday, May 25th. United States: Many small businesses have limited liquidity. Also, here is cash availability by sector. Eurozone: The ECB’s securities purchases allowed Spain and Italy to sell quite a bit of debt this year. Energy: …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 19th, 2020
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published next Monday, May 25th. Equities: Fund managers are still overweight in healthcare and cash/bonds. Credit: The Fed’s Commercial Paper Funding Facility helped tighten short-term funding spreads. Energy: Here are some scenarios for global oil demand through the end of next …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 18th, 2020
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published next Monday, May 25th. United States: Economists continue to downgrade their GDP growth forecasts. The latest consensus estimate suggests that during this quarter, the US economy will shrink by nearly a third. Europe: European equities’ underperformance vs. the US continues to …
