Greetings, The United States: Finally, here is Morgan Stanley’s GDP forecast (by quarter). The Eurozone: Is there more pain ahead for the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector? Equities: This has been the longest bull market on record. China: Below, we have some data on China’s household debt. Global Developments: The growth in central banks’ aggregate …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Economists have consistently underestimated job growth in the US. The Eurozone: Recession probability in the Eurozone has risen sharply. Equities: Are US earnings growth expectations stabilizing? China: These are China’s debt growth rates over the past three years. Global Developments: The US consumer is responsible for a substantial portion of the …
The Daily Shot Brief – February 27th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Current US tax refunds are lagging the trend we saw during the previous two years. This delay can be a drag on household spending (especially big-ticket items). The Eurozone: Credit indicators in the Eurozone have softened a bit – especially business loan growth. Equities: The charts below show …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 27th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Consumer inflation expectations continue to drift lower. The Eurozone: Here is the UBS Eurozone economic surprise index. Equities: It should be a strong year for share buybacks. China: Housing inventories continue to moderate. Global Developments: This chart shows the carry (short-term rate differential) for the US dollar vs. select currencies. …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 26th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Consumer surveys point to downside risks to vehicle sales. The Eurozone: Here are the details of Germany’s GDP growth. Equities: This chart shows the percentage of the S&P 500 stocks trading above the 50-day moving average. China: F/X flows turned positive. Global Developments: Which nations’ business cycles are most …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 25th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Many analysts are predicting that the next rate change by the Fed will be a cut. Will the easing of trade tensions with China change this view? The Eurozone: Based on historical PMI “price pressure” responses (and falling inflation expectations above), the ECB should be easing in the current environment. …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 21st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The US GDP growth has slowed but is expected to remain above potential. The Eurozone: Below are the contributions to the euro area’s industrial production. Equities: Most firms in the S&P 500 are not “cash-rich” – the data is skewed by the top 5% of the companies. Credit: Investment-grade CDX spread (yellow) …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The February Sales Managers’ Index (SMI) showed further moderation in US business growth. Business confidence and hiring indices slumped. The Eurozone: Portfolio outflows have worsened at the end of 2018. Will we see a reversal this year? Equities: Here is the percentage of the S&P 500 stocks that are above the …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 15th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Home sales should strengthen. The Eurozone: This fascinating chart compares the relative popularity of Italy’s populist parties with the 10-year Italian government bond spread. Equities: There has been quite a bit of hype about the possibility of an earnings recession. Is it overblown? Credit: These two charts show ABS and CMBS yearly …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 14th, 2019
Greetings, The United States:Here is the trend in bankruptcies and foreclosures. The Eurozone: Here is the industrial production breakdown. Is the worst over for the Eurozone’s industrial output? Equities: Earnings recessions haven’t typically coincided with economic downturns in recent years. Credit: A weak CLO market has been a drag on leveraged loan performance. …
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