Greetings, Equities: How does the S&P 500 perform following 5% and 6% declines? Credit: Corporate defaults have risen sharply. How high will the leveraged finance default rate get over the next three quarters? Energy: This chart shows the 2020 demand impact by product. Eurozone: Traders are boosting their bets on the …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 12th, 2020
Greetings, Credit: US corporate debt is approaching 50% of GDP, a new record. While this chart is through Q1, the ratio likely climbed further in the current quarter. The share of US companies whose debt service costs exceed profits continues to rise. Equities: News stories mentioning “Robinhood” have surpassed those containing the word …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 11th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The Federal Reserve will continue with its stimulus measures and expects to keep rates near zero through 2022. Changes in the FOMC statements: Treasuries rallied in response to the Fed’s zero-rate forecast. Europe: Home prices in the UK are expected to decline, according to the latest RICS report. China: …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 10th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The uncertainty surrounding the May employment report was exacerbated by much lower participation in the household survey. The process was also modified due to safety issues. Also, the rate lock volume is up 18% year-over-year as homebuyers rush to lock in record-low mortgage rates. United Kingdom: Is the UK ready for …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 9th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Actual vs. reported unemployment (3 charts): Eurozone: The ECB’s easing measures have boosted Italian bond prices, despite soaring government debt. China: Here are some closely-watched economic trends. • Cement shipments: • Car sales: • Property sales: Equities: The Nasdaq trading volume has spiked. Rates: There has been a …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 8th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Let’s begin with the May employment report, which was far stronger than the consensus estimate. While there are numerous theories as to why economists were so far off, one explanation was widely discussed on Friday. The jobless claims data and the ADP private payrolls report did not pick up what analysts …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 5th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Here is the share of income derived from wages vs. government programs. Eurozone: The ECB came through with a ‘bazooka,’ massively boosting its QE program (as markets expected). Here is the projection for the central bank’s balance sheet from Pantheon Macroeconomics. Europe: Switzerland is in deflation. Despite the ECB’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 4th, 2020
Greetings, United States: By the way, here is the latest mobility chart from Apple. The trend in driving appears to have recovered, which is inconsistent with relatively weak gasoline demand (see the energy section). Canada: Will we see a sharp decline in immigration as unemployment spikes? Europe: Reopening schools has the potential to …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 3rd, 2020
Greetings, Canada: Total household credit has contracted this year. But mortgage credit expansion has been robust. Revolving home equity loan balances have increased. Eurozone: Germans are going out to eat. Emerging Markets: Electricity consumption continues to show extreme weakness in Brazil’s economy. Equities: There is a great deal of …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 2nd, 2020
Greetings, United States: In some regions/industries, it is more lucrative to keep the expanded unemployment benefits than to return to work. In addition, despite the government checks, many households have been tapping their savings to pay bills. Eurozone: Germany’s yield curve has steepened in recent days as the government readies substantial fiscal …
