Greetings,
Credit: US corporate debt is approaching 50% of GDP, a new record. While this chart is through Q1, the ratio likely climbed further in the current quarter.
The share of US companies whose debt service costs exceed profits continues to rise.
Equities: News stories mentioning “Robinhood” have surpassed those containing the word “Vanguard.” Day-trading has become extremely popular.
Rates: The Fed’s purchases of Treasury securities have slowed to pre-pandemic levels. Of course, the central bank was buying only bills before the crisis, but now it targets debt across the curve.
United States: The FOMC does not expect the unemployment rate to return to pre-crisis lows for years.
As discussed previously, the US unemployment rate calculations are not very reliable at this point.
Global Developments: The 2020 GDP hit (“double-hit scenario” represents a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic):
Food For Thought: Monthly changes in US food prices:
Edited by Daniel Moskovits
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