Greetings, China: The nation’s manufacturing surge is fueling industrial commodities markets. Here are iron ore, steel, and copper futures traded in China. Asia-Pacific: Japan is now firmly in deflation. United States: Confidence in the economy has deteriorated. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s surge was stopped at $24k. This chart shows Bitcoin vs. FANG+ stocks. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 18th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The Fed provided guidance for its asset purchases on Wednesday, with language suggesting that QE could continue for some time. FOMC: … the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 17th, 2020”
Greetings, Administrative Update: If you didn’t receive the Daily Shot Brief yesterday due to the Google outage, you can view it online at https://dailyshotbrief.com/ United States: Households increasingly expect to boost their spending in the next 12 months. Europe: BCA Research expects tighter government bond spreads given additional easing from the ECB. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 16th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Home equity withdrawals have increased in recent years. Will rents continue to face downward pressure? Eurozone: The euro is correlated with China’s credit cycle, which points to further upside for the bloc’s currency. China: China’s overseas lending has collapsed. Energy: OPEC cut its oil demand forecast for …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 15th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The Atlanta Fed’s GDP model forecast for Q4 has increased over the past few weeks and now sits at 11.2% (annualized). Economists increasingly see upside risks to GDP forecasts for the next twelve months. United Kingdom: The pound jumped on renewed hopes for a deal. China: Credit growth is …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 14th, 2020”
Greetings, United Kingdom: The GDP recovery slowed further in October. Below is a comparison to previous downturns. Eurozone: The ECB added €500 billion to its QE program, which was extended for nine months. Why nine? Apparently, it was a compromise between those who wanted six vs. another group who insisted on twelve. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 11th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Consumer confidence among higher-income Americans is recovering. That’s not the case for those in the lower-income brackets. Emerging Markets: Latin America has been devastated by COVID. Energy: The slump in US natural gas futures continues. Equities: Here is BofA’s chart showing the recent spike in call option volume. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 10th, 2020”
Greetings, Canada: Canada’s fiscal response has been more extensive than in the US or other advanced economies. The BoC’s response has also been impressive. Eurozone: Spreads have been tightening across the Eurozone “periphery.” The Belgian budget deficit has blown out. Japan: There is more stimulus on the way. China: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 9th, 2020”
Greetings, Equities: US-focused ETFs took in $62 billion of inflows in November – the highest monthly inflow in history, according to State Street. Credit: The US middle-market loan volume is at multi-year lows. Rates: The markets are signaling higher inflation ahead. • Stocks that benefit from higher inflation are outperforming. • Demand for …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 8th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Long-term market-based inflation expectations are grinding higher. China: Exports accelerated last month, exceeding forecasts. The trade surplus hit a record high. Commodities: Gold outflows have been extreme. Equities: Citi’s sentiment index is deep in euphoria territory. Global Developments: This chart shows how speculative accounts are positioned in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 7th, 2020”
