Greetings, Eurozone: Construction output tumbled in February. China: China’s retail investors lost interest in mutual funds. Commodities: Iron ore is surging amid supply concerns. Rates: Treasury cash holdings are expected to bottom in late Q3, releasing massive amounts of liquidity. Global Developments: Here is Bloomberg’s map of policy rate changes. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 19th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The U. Michigan consumer sentiment index was below market forecasts, with the expectations component stalling this month. Near-term inflation expectations surged. House buying conditions deteriorated further. Will we see this trend reflected in the housing market? Cryptocurrency: The weekend’s crypto selloff wiped out all of bitcoin’s gains over the past …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 16th, 2021
Greetings, Rates: The unexpected Treasury rally this week set the tone for global markets. Japanese and other international fixed-income investors, who were net sellers earlier this year, are back in the Treasury market. US debt hedged into yen remains relatively attractive. Equities: Despite strong Q1 results (due to trading) … … …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 15th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The Fed’s Beige Book report was more upbeat than the markets were expecting. The survey also showed an increase in inflation. Economic uncertainty and COVID concerns are easing. Stocks pulled back from the highs after the Beige Book report was released (due to inflation concerns). Eurozone: More gains for producer …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 14th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Inflation volatility is back. Sustained inflation gains will require stronger wage growth. The latest Evercore ISI survey suggests that it’s a possibility. Eurozone: The ECB’s increase in securities purchases hasn’t been as aggressive as “promised.” Will the market test the central bank with higher yields? Asia-Pacific: Singapore is …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 13th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Manufacturers reported substantial gains in input costs last month. The PPI report confirmed that trend, with processed intermediate goods prices rising sharply (2 charts). James Bullard suggested that the Fed will review its QE policy when the US hits a 75% vaccination rate. United Kingdom: Retail sales strengthened last …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 12th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Business-to-business sales point to a rebound in brick & mortar retailers’ activity. Here is the Evercore ISI survey of retailers. China: Alibaba shares jumped after Bejing announced a fine against the firm. The regulatory “overhang” is over for now. Cryptocurrency: Here are some estimates for Coinbase’s total market value based on …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 9th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Americans are saving/investing more of their stimulus cash. Nonetheless, Bank of America is predicting an 11% jump in retail sales for March. And here is a forecast for personal incomes from Morgan Stanley. Eurozone: Euro-area financial conditions are the most accommodative in years. Emerging Markets: Brazil’s COVID-related deaths hit …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 8th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Vaccine supply constraints are easing. Asia-Pacific: Tokyo COVID cases are on the rise. Office vacancies continue to climb. China: Services inflation is expected to rebound. Equities: Share buybacks have accelerated again. Here is a look at the 5-year rolling correlation of S&P 500 sectors to the 10-year Treasury …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 7th, 2021
Greetings, United States: As the pandemic eases, businesses will need to boost wages to attract and retain staff. Tight labor markets may drive wage inflation. Higher commodity prices are unlikely to create a sustained increase in inflation. But persistent wage gains could. Emerging Markets: India’s central bank left rates unchanged as …
