Greetings, The United States: Initial jobless claims are now firmly under pre-COVID levels, hitting a multi-year low. Investors have been looking for signs of some loosening in the labor market. This report didn’t provide any. The market is now pricing in almost 200 bps of rate hikes between now and the end of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 16th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: First, here are the inflation rates and corresponding weights of CPI components. The US Treasury curve is increasingly inverted, which comes as a 75 bps rate hike this month seems very likely. The Eurozone: The PMI index points to downside risks for euro-area industrial production. Equities: In equity markets, multiple …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 15th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: The CPI report was highly disappointing, with price gains exceeding estimates Stocks saw the worst one-day rout since 2020. The Eurozone: The euro dipped back below parity as the USD surged. Emerging Markets: Asian currencies declined further after the US CPI shock. Here is the Malaysian ringgit. EM Equity ETFs …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 14th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: First, what could make the Fed “pivot” on rate hikes? (based on BofA’s survey of fund managers) The United Kingdom: UK CPI has been outpacing other advanced economies. The Eurozone: The Eurozone is facing stagflation just as the ECB ramps up rate hikes. Credit: Investment-grade bond ratings shifted to net …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 13th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Starting off, used vehicle prices have been declining. Household net worth tumbled last quarter as stocks slumped. The United Kingdom: BoE rate hikes are expected to outpace the Fed’s tightening. Commodities: Commodity trading has been profitable for banks this year. Equities: Short-covering gave stocks a boost last week. Here’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 12th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Fed officials are not backing off their hawkish stance. A 75 bps rate hike this month is now nearly a certainty. The United Kingdom: Here is what inflation may look like after the household energy bill cap, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. Rates: The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening will pick …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 9th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: In the housing market, very few homeowners should end up with negative equity in the case of a significant decline in home prices. Restaurant and airline demand is now above pre-COVID levels. The United Kingdom: Price caps on energy bills are coming and are set to boost costs for …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 8th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: The US dollar continues to surge. Gasoline futures point to lower prices at the pump. China: The PBoC is getting increasingly aggressive in its efforts to stabilize the renminbi. The spread between the latest exchange rate fix and market expectations hit a new high. Stock continue to decline in Hong …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 7th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: The probability of a 75 bps Fed rate hike this month dropped in response to the employment report as labor force participation improved and wage growth edged lower. The labor market is showing signs of loosening. The ISM Manufacturing PMI held up well in August, suggesting that factory activity remains …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 6th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: To begin, economists expect home price appreciation in the US to slow sharply next year. US real yields continue to climb, pressuring stocks. The Eurozone: At the Eurozone level, the CPI surprised to the upside again, hitting a new high. Core inflation is also surging (2nd panel). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 1st, 2022”
