Greetings, United States: Crude oil is now up about 45% year-to-date, with Brent blasting past $110/bbl. There are growing concerns that the massive price surge will become a substantial drag on the US and global economy this year. China: Developers have been struggling to raise capital from traditional sources. And funding …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 1st, 2022
Greetings, United States: The Chicago PMI showed a downshift in the region’s business activity in February Moreover, the spread between the indices of new orders and inventory dipped below zero, pointing to slower growth ahead. Supply-chain strains remain elevated. Europe: European rigid wage system is yet to budge despite labor shortages. …
The Daily Shot Brief – February 28th, 2022
Greetings, Equities: Western nations revoked access to SWIFT for major Russian banks. While some efforts were made to carve out energy-related payments, many private entities will refuse to transact with Russian institutions until there is more clarity on the situation. For now, sales of most commodities will be challenging for Russia. Brent crude surged …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 25th, 2022
Greetings, Equities: It’s been over a decade since we saw this level of growth factor underperformance vs. value (over a 3-month period). Rates: How much does the yield curve flatten across tightening cycles? Energy: The latest Russia sanctions excluded energy and did not block Russia from the international payment system. As a …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 24th, 2022
Greetings, Global Developments: According to the Russian government’s news agency, TASS, … Putin decided to conduct an operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine. …Russia will not allow Ukraine to have nuclear weapons. The term “denazify” suggests that Putin intends to remove the Ukrainian government by force, which means a full-scale invasion (the Kremlin has …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 23rd, 2022
Greetings, United States: Despite more robust pay increases since the start of the pandemic, home prices have left wages in the dust. This divergence is only sustainable if mortgage rates stay low. Eurozone: This chart illustrates the Eurozone’s exposure to Russia. Cryptocurrencies: The gold-backed token market has accelerated over the past year …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 22nd, 2022
Greetings, Emerging Markets: The Ukraine/Russia situation has deteriorated further. Russia-backed separatists currently control less than half of the Luhansk/Donetsk region. Which portion of the region did Putin recognize as “independent”? If it’s the whole area, the act will likely lead to war. Will Russian “peacekeepers” push across the Minsk Protocol buffer zone? …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 21st, 2022
Greetings, Equities: Amid the Russia/Ukraine crisis, a number of companies have mentioned Ukraine on their earnings calls. Which firms have exposure to Ukraine/Russia? Credit: Investment-grade credit default swap spreads continue to widen. China: Beijing continues its regulatory crackdown on tech firms. United States: US COVID cases continue to ease. Global …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 18th, 2022
Greetings, United States: US goods spending has been slowing, … … as disposable income weakens. Cryptocurrency: Here is a look at open interest and volume of BTC and ETH futures compared with major traditional futures markets. Commodities: Bloomberg’s broad commodities index continues to hit record highs. Equities: Friday could be volatile …
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The Daily Shot Brief – February 17th, 2022
Greetings, United States: The FOMC minutes (from the Jan 25-26 meeting) were less hawkish than feared. There didn’t seem to be any signal for a 50 bps rate hike in March. Stocks moved higher. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped. The dollar was down. Canada: Is someone taking the protest against vaccine mandates online? …
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