Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley is forecasting 4.7% GDP growth for the second quarter. Massive soybean exports ahead of China’s retaliatory tariffs boosted net exports (light blue). The Eurozone: Germany’s Ifo business climate index showed increasing uncertainty. The spread between the current situation measure and business expectations continues to widen. The biggest …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 25th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: We haven’t seen these levels of labor market tightness and strong demand conditions since the late 1990s (right before the recession). China: Beijing made it clear that it will work to boost growth in response to the rising risks to the economy. With shadow banking expansion presumably under control, …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 23rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Oxford Economics is forecasting 4.5% GDP growth for Q2 (annualized), with expansion moderating in the second half of the year. The soft-hard data divergence persists. One of the contributors to the outsized GDP growth in Q2 was a sharp increase in soybean exports ahead of the tariffs. China: Foreign …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 20th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The last time we had so few Americans filing for unemployment was in 1969. Layoffs remain rare amid tight labor markets. China: Are China’s stocks attractive at this point? Global Developments: Who owns each nation’s government debt? This chart shows government bond yields globally (as well as the …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 19th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Commercial freight activity is off the highs but remains elevated. Freight spending is still climbing as shipping companies boost prices. China: Despite the currency weakness, the implied volatility has been relatively subdued. Rates: How did the dollar respond to rate hikes in the past? Equity Markets: Growth …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 18th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The majority of fund managers expect the next recession to begin in the second half of next year or the first half of 2020. China: China’s new home price increases have accelerated (see chart). Existing home prices are lagging. Global Developments: Which nations have the worst restrictions on …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 17th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The U. Michigan business conditions index suggests moderation in business activity. Below, the U.Michigan’s indicator is compared with the ISM composite index. China: China’s consumer is becoming a greater component of the GDP growth. But is consumption overstated? Global Developments: Surveys point to robust investment growth across advanced …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 16th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Consumers are becoming uneasy about car purchases. China: Loan growth remains robust. The total credit (TSF) expansion has slowed but is still massive. Global Developments: Speculators continue to boost their bets on the dollar. Equity Markets: Where are US stocks traded? Emerging Markets: Venezuela’s refineries are …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 12th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Economists continue to forecast productivity improvements as business investment grows. China: Here is Fathom’s China economic momentum indicator. Global Developments: The global inflation news flow index remains elevated. Equity Markets: Trading volumes are up this year. Emerging Markets: Argentina’s central bank is keeping its benchmark rate at 40%. …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 11th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Below is a chart of US consumer inflation distribution by item. Both “tails” are on the rise. IIF attributes the lower tail to the “Amazon effect.” The upper tail, however, shows “signs of overheating.” China: Beijing is increasingly concerned about the nation’s rising dollar-denominated debt. It limits the government’s ability …
