Greetings, The United States: Here is an index of home price appreciation that breaks the housing market into four price tiers. The Eurozone: The euro-area inflation rate was below consensus forecasts. Equities: These charts show sector performance year-to-date and since last September (market high). Rates: Are we about to see bond …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 1st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Despite slower industrial output in recent months, the US continues to outperform other OECD economies. This relative strength is due to lower US reliance on demand from Asia (chart below shows industrial production outperformance). The Eurozone: This chart shows the absolute debt levels for Italy, France, and Germany. …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 29th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: US economic growth is expected to remain subdued this year. • The Conference Board Leading Indicator: The Eurozone: Germany’s yield curve has flattened substantially. Here is the 10yr – 2yr Bund spread. Equities: The rally in both bonds and stocks this year has been unusual. China: The yuan’s strength has been …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 28th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for the Q1 growth has converged with the economists’ consensus estimate at 1.5%. Oxford Economics sees the GDP expansion of around 1%. Are the falling Treasury yields telling us to expect much weaker growth ahead? The Eurozone: This chart shows the market-based probability of a rate …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 27th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Outbound container volume points to stronger US exports at the beginning of the year. The Eurozone: China’s imports from Italy and France have diverged. Equities: Google search activity points to increased concerns about a recession among retail investors. China: Leading indicators point to further deterioration in China’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 26th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Investors increasingly expect higher US unemployment a year from now. The Eurozone: China’s economic rebound should stabilize the Eurozone’s growth. Equities: This chart compares the tech sector with global stocks across different metrics. China: These charts show the growth in China’s bond markets. Global Developments: Speculative accounts …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 25th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Economists expect slower US growth this year, but not a recession. According to Bloomberg, the consensus forecast for the 2019 full-year GDP growth is 2.4%, which may be a bit optimistic. The Eurozone: Economists will be downgrading Germany’s GDP growth forecasts further Equities: This chart shows cumulative tech …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 22nd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Next, we have the World Economics SMI for March. This index measures business activity at the national level. It shows confidence rebounding, but caution around hiring persists. The Eurozone: Spain’s trade deficit is rising (partially due to strong domestic demand). Equities: The chart below shows US semiconductor manufacturers’ …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 21st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The FOMC downgraded its forecasts for the GDP growth and the headline inflation (PCE). The Committee left the core (ex. food & energy) inflation projections unchanged. The Eurozone: This chart shows the divergence in industrial production growth. Equities: Share buyback activity appears to be fading. China: China’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The HPS-CS sentiment index shows households becoming concerned about personal finances. The Eurozone: While the Eurozone’s GDP growth has been underperforming, the GDP per head (working-age population) has kept pace with the US. Equities: US equities have significantly outperformed global stocks in recent years (in part because of higher tech …
