Greetings, The United States: When will the economic cycle peak? Here is a survey of investors and business executives. The Eurozone: Germany’s CapEx orders growth should bottom out as China’s economy rebounds. Equities: Analysts’ forecasts for stock prices and earnings growth have diverged. China: One of the drivers of China’s industrial rebound has been …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 16th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Housing affordability has been deteriorating, especially in western US states. The Eurozone: Despite the weakness in Germany’s factory output, manufacturing employment kept expanding (even in the automotive sector). Equities: Tech margins are nearly 3x the median S&P 500 sector. China: China’s credit impulse is starting to pick up. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 15th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: This scatterplot shows the nation’s wage growth vs. the unemployment rate. The Eurozone: Here are the destinations of the Eurozone’s exports. Equities: The S&P 500 is back on the trend line. China: Exports are recovering. Global Developments: Central banks have stopped tightening. Food for Thought: …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 12th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley’s business conditions index moved lower in response to softer business expectations. The Eurozone: This is not a fair comparison because we are looking at bonds in two different currencies. Nonetheless, it’s worth noting that the 5-year Greek government bond yield is now lower than the US equivalent. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 11th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Here is the breakdown of monthly price changes in the core goods CPI. The Eurozone: Will the rebound in Asia provide some relief for the ECB? Equities: Retail investors remain cautious, suggesting that there may be more upside for the stock market. China: This chart shows China’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 10th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: An index based on legal transactions (LegalShield) does not support the recent jump in existing home sales. The Eurozone: The “gilets jaunes” movement persists. Equities: The global corporate earnings newsflow index has stabilized. China: The housing market policy conditions remain tight (in 2017 Beijing tightened requirements for …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 9th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Business credit applications have slowed in the first quarter. The Eurozone: The euro’s historical volatility has tumbled this year (60-day vol shown below). Equities: International developed markets look increasingly undervalued vs. the US. China: Lending is on the rise again. Global Developments: The ANZ Global Leading …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The dollar’s strength will continue to put downward pressure on import prices. The Eurozone: Economists are concerned that the latest weakness in business activity will pressure the labor markets. Equities: The S&P 500 total return index (including dividends) is back at record highs. China: Capital inflows are …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The energy sector has been a drag on durable goods orders. The Eurozone: It’s not going to be a good year for Germany’s GDP growth. Equities: Analysts expect the S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) to recover rapidly over the next few quarters. China: The renminbi’s volatility has …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 3rd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Regional manufacturing surveys point to slower factory input inflation (priced paid) across the US. The Eurozone: Retail currency traders are betting on a rebound in the euro. Equities: High-beta shares have been flying high. Commodities: This chart shows China’s commodity consumption. Global Developments: The US dollar’s …
