Greetings, The United States: Analysts are concerned about weak business investment. Here is Morgan Stanley’s CapEx plans index. Eurozone: Services should be accretive to the GDP growth over the next couple of quarters. China: Here are China’s total external liabilities. Food for Thought: International tourist arrivals: Edited by Joseph N …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 5th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows corporate profits as a percentage of the GDP. Eurozone: Doves dominate the ECB’s Governing Council and are expected to deliver a “bazooka” stimulus package this month. China: Goldman’s policy proxy index suggests that Beijing’s latest stimulus program has been more moderate than in 2015/16. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 2nd, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Consumers are less enthusiastic about purchasing a vehicle. Eurozone: There is downside risk to Germany’s employment growth. China: How sensitive are Asian currencies to movements in the renminbi? Equities: August is typically a good month for share buybacks. Food for Thought: Europe’s biggest beer producers: Edited by …
Greetings, The United States: The Federal government will be limited in its ability to stimulate the economy in the next recession because the fiscal policy is already extraordinarily loose. Given the current economic expansion, the level of government stimulus is unprecedented. Eurozone: Will slower economic growth put pressure on bank lending? China: …
Greetings, The United States: Retail sales have deviated from the recent trend, driven by internet (non-store) sales. Eurozone: Here is a long-term chart of the Eurozone’s bank share index. China: Beijing has adjusted the process for how banks set their lending rates. The net impact is effectively a rate cut (see story). …
Greetings, The United States: The number of news stories that include the word “recession” hit a new high. Are these concerns overblown? Eurozone: Economic data momentum indices across the Eurozone have diverged. China: Hong Kong’s second-quarter GDP contracted more than expected. Third-quarter growth is probably in negative territory as well, which would indicate …
Greetings, The United States: Freight shipping activity remains soft. Eurozone: Germany’s leading indicators are worsening. The decline in ad sales has been especially pronounced. China: Outside of the US, China’s export growth remains robust. Emerging Markets: Some improvements in leading economic indicators over the past few months point to a modest …
Greetings, The United States: Will the recent stock market volatility pull the NFIB small business optimism down over the next few months? Eurozone: The ECB is not expected to match the Fed on easing policy, which could benefit the euro. China: While further weakness in the yuan raises refinancing risks for Chinese …
Greetings, The United States: Are manufacturers struggling with cash flow? Europe: The UK’s GDP drop last quarter was driven by the post-Brexit-deadline destocking. China: Weakness in China’s currency may help arrest producer price deflation. Global Developments: Here is Deutsche Bank’s risk-fear index. Food for Thought: Home price appreciation in California: …
Greetings, The United States: Several leading indicators, such as manufacturing labor costs and oil prices, point to slower inflation ahead. Europe: Dutch industrial sales fell by more than 10% (from the previous year) for the first time in a decade. China: Goldman estimates that capital outflows have picked up, although nothing like …
