Greetings, The United States: Several leading indicators, such as manufacturing labor costs and oil prices, point to slower inflation ahead. Europe: Dutch industrial sales fell by more than 10% (from the previous year) for the first time in a decade. China: Goldman estimates that capital outflows have picked up, although nothing like …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 9th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI) deteriorated again this month. Europe: Is there more pain ahead for Germany’s economy? China: Monetary conditions have been improving lately, which should offset some of the trade-related headwinds. Global Developments: The weakness in semiconductor sales points to a further slowdown …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 7th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Weaker business orders (and diminishing logistics bottlenecks) point to downside risks for transportation and warehousing jobs. Europe: European bank stocks continue to underperform. China: Consumption now makes up a greater share of China’s GDP growth. Global Developments: This chart shows the global disconnect between manufacturing and services …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 6th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The employment cost index vs. the prime-age non-employment rate (a variation of the Phillips Curve): The Eurozone: Investor sentiment continues to deteriorate. China: The widening spread between Chinese and US bond yields should provide some support for the renminbi. Credit: Investors can’t get enough of muni funds. Food …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The two charts below show the evolution of US tariffs. The Eurozone: The currency bloc’s producer prices appear to be headed for deflation. China: China was already facing capital outflows. The renminbi’s weakening is expected to accelerate this trend. Global Developments: There is more downside to global trade …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 1st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the spread between the ISM orders and inventories (a forward-looking indicator) vs. the ISM composite index. The Eurozone: Businesses increasingly expect a slowdown in hiring. China: Government bond yields are falling. Rates: The shift into bond funds from equity funds continues. The net new …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 1st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The recent improvements in economic indicators suggest that deeper rate cuts are unlikely. The Eurozone: Ireland is getting hit by the combination of Europe’s recent industrial weakness and the Brexit uncertainty. China: Hong Kong’s Q2 GDP growth was weaker than expected. Rates: Cutting rates as an “insurance” …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 31st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Economists remain concerned about a slowdown in business investment. The Eurozone: Germany’s consumer inflation hit the lowest level since 2017. China: The July official manufacturing PMI ticked higher but remained below 50. Global Developments: This chart shows each central bank’s target rate in terms of the number of …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 30th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Online searches related to industrial activity have been improving. The Eurozone: German recession risks are not insignificant. China: Here is Hong Kong’s opinion poll on the extradition bill. Global Developments: Speculative accounts are now net short the dollar in the futures market. Food for Thought: British views …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 26th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the divergence between labor productivity and employment over the past couple of decades. The gap is probably due to the technological advancements since the late 1990s. The United Kingdom: Borrowing by households continues to moderate. China: China’s services sector is offsetting the weakness in manufacturing. …
