Greetings, The United States: The massive US underinvestment in infrastructure continues. Equity Markets: The chart below shows the S&P 500 “sectoral dominance” over the past two decades. China: Luxury goods sales in China keep climbing. Energy Markets: This chart shows US oil production by state. Canada: Canada’s residential mortgage …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 13th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley also predicts that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure will hit 2%. Equity Markets: Will we see more pressure on IPO fees after the Spotify deal? Credit: The corporate debt service burden has not risen as much as the overall debt levels. Will the situation worsen as …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 12th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Analysts’ views on the US housing market have shifted to the downside. Is it too early to be concerned about the housing cycle coming to an end? Equity Markets: The buyback basket has been outperforming, suggesting a spike in share buybacks this year. Credit: The leveraged loan index …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 11th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the breakdown of jobs as well as corporate profits by industry. Equity Markets: Will the dollar weakness boost corporate earnings this year? Credit: Here is an update on high-yield default rares. Emerging Markets: Brazilians’ trust in their political leadership is extraordinarily low. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 10th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Is the trade deficit with China lower than it appears? The charts below show what happens when services, trade with Hong Kong, and the value-add import adjustments are incorporated. Equity Markets: We continue to see investor sentiment souring rapidly. Here is the retail investor sentiment index from TD …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 9th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Some economists suggest that the US (and global) factory activity is about to slow substantially (“VP” = Variant Perception). Equity Markets: According to one measure of investor sentiment, the bull/bear ratio is now below one. And investment managers have significantly cut their exposure to the stock market. A …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 6th, 2018
Greetings, Equities: As discussed yesterday (#2 here), President Trump’s approval ratings have been climbing, which is encouraging him to get more aggressive on trade. That’s why this latest news shouldn’t be a surprise. The White House strategy now is to tack on an additional $100 billion in new tariffs which would result …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 5th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: After being a drag on the GDP (austerity), the federal government now has a positive contribution to growth. Equity Markets: Analysts remain constructive on the stock market amid sharply higher earnings revisions last quarter. Credit: The Moody’s Liquidity Stress Indicator remains near the lows amid ‘tepid defaults.’ …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 4th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US inflation has been staying within a relatively narrow band for over two decades. Deutsche Bank predicts that it will be moving toward the upper end of the range. Tight labor markets and stronger economic growth, fueled in part by the massive injection of fiscal stimulus, are some of …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 3rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Here is how homeowners have been tapping their home equity (blue = home-equity loans, gray = cash-out refinancing). Equity Markets: The S&P 500 valuations are back to the early-2016 levels. Are earnings projections way off? Is the market pricing in the end of the economic cycle? Despite the …
