The Daily Shot Brief – April 4th, 2018

Greetings,

 

 

The United States: US inflation has been staying within a relatively narrow band for over two decades. Deutsche Bank predicts that it will be moving toward the upper end of the range.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Tight labor markets and stronger economic growth, fueled in part by the massive injection of fiscal stimulus, are some of the reasons for higher inflation ahead. The US economy is now operating at full capacity.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

The recent dollar weakness should also contribute to higher prices.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

However, some economists are not ready to predict a spike in inflation just yet, suggesting that the rising ‘upstream’ inflation is driven by higher oil prices. And according to multiple forecasts, crude prices are expected to stabilize and even decline later this year.

Source: @jbjakobsen

 

Equity Markets: The S&P 500 is still expensive relative to the rest of the world.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Credit: This chart shows the average maturity for IG bonds by rating.

Source: Bianco Research

 

Emerging Markets: This chart shows hard-currency debt issuance in emerging markets.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Global Developments: Global manufacturing activity has moderated.

Source: Scotiabank Economics

 

China: China dominates emerging markets’ credit expansion.China dominates emerging markets’ credit expansion.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Rates: The Fed’s rate projections for 2020 appear to be too optimistic.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

 


Food for Thought: Largest Fortune-500 political donors.

Source: @howmuch_net; Read full article

 

Edited by Joseph N Cohen


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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen), Ycharts.com, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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