The Daily Shot Brief – April 4th, 2018




The United States: US inflation has been staying within a relatively narrow band for over two decades. Deutsche Bank predicts that it will be moving toward the upper end of the range.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Tight labor markets and stronger economic growth, fueled in part by the massive injection of fiscal stimulus, are some of the reasons for higher inflation ahead. The US economy is now operating at full capacity.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

The recent dollar weakness should also contribute to higher prices.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

However, some economists are not ready to predict a spike in inflation just yet, suggesting that the rising ‘upstream’ inflation is driven by higher oil prices. And according to multiple forecasts, crude prices are expected to stabilize and even decline later this year.

Source: @jbjakobsen


Equity Markets: The S&P 500 is still expensive relative to the rest of the world.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Credit: This chart shows the average maturity for IG bonds by rating.

Source: Bianco Research


Emerging Markets: This chart shows hard-currency debt issuance in emerging markets.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research


Global Developments: Global manufacturing activity has moderated.

Source: Scotiabank Economics


China: China dominates emerging markets’ credit expansion.China dominates emerging markets’ credit expansion.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research


Rates: The Fed’s rate projections for 2020 appear to be too optimistic.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research



Food for Thought: Largest Fortune-500 political donors.

Source: @howmuch_net; Read full article


Edited by Joseph N Cohen

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