Greetings, The United States: While the job market continues to gain momentum, employment growth is slowing. The pool of “idle” workers is shrinking amid the aging US population. Employers are looking for ways to grow without significant staff increases. Equity Markets: Here is a comparison of the latest market correction with the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 12th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: According to Moody’s, “the US already stands out as one of the most highly leveraged governments.” Moreover, leverage and the interest burden are both expected to spike over the next decade (second chart below). The only thing that keeps the rating agencies from downgrading US federal debt (for now) …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 12th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: How well did the yield curve predict prior recessions? China: Here is an interesting question. How much of the recent dollar weakness is due to Beijing tolerating a stronger renminbi? Equity Markets: It’s interesting that the stock market had tolerated bond yield increases for some time, but …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 9th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Will the stock market jitters impact household consumption? China: Beijing is imposing record fines on the nation’s banks. Equity Markets: Historical volatility jumped this week, which means that VAR models will be penalizing equity exposure more than they have recently. Will this impact demand for stocks? The Eurozone: Despite …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 8th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: 2018 could be a record year for US companies’ overseas mergers and acquisitions. China: China’s pension shortfall has been rising. Equity Markets: The number of Bloomberg stories mentioning “healthy correction” hits a record high. Rates: Analysts expect higher Treasury issuance across the curve over the next …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 7th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Here is an estimate of job losses by state if the US withdraws from NAFTA. The Eurozone: The Eurozone service sector activity has accelerated in January. Here is the composite PMI (fastest expansion in over a decade). Italy’s business output has been especially strong. Equity Markets: Over …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 6th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Here is an overview of the US trade with China. Some analysts believe that China’s massive surplus with the US will make a significant retaliation against US trade restrictions less likely. Europe: Sweden’s manufacturing expansion is slowing. Will this weakness also show up in the Eurozone this year? …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 5th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: In the near-term, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is projecting 5.4% for Q1. Right. The Eurozone: The Eurozone manufacturing activity remains near multi-year highs. Price pressures are picking up (which is giving the euro a boost). Is the ECB paying attention? Equity Markets: Sales growth at restaurants continues …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 2nd, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Economists are predicting a further decline in the household savings rate as stocks and home prices boost the wealth effect. It’s worth noting that many Americans who are unable to save are not the ones who benefit from the wealth effect. The Eurozone: Exports were a big component …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 1st, 2018”
