Greetings, The United States: To begin, we have an update on the labor market. The seasonally-adjusted indicator for initial jobless claims is at its lowest since 1969, when the US population was much smaller. The tightening of the labor market comes as the Fed weighs a 50bps rate increase. Historically, tighter monetary policy …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 24th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, Eastern Seaboard container volumes have been slowing. This trend coincides with deteriorating forward-looking data in the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey. The Eurozone: Next, high energy prices and other pressures are eroding real wages in European economies. Energy: In energy markets, Brent passed $120/bbl after the Caspian …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 23rd, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with the housing market. This estimate of housing affordability from Standard Chartered takes us back to the housing bubble era. Emerging Markets: Russia’s inflation is surging. Cryptocurrency: Energy companies have been getting into bitcoin mining. Commodities: Next, fertilizer prices and shares of companies in that …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 22nd, 2022
Greetings, Rates: There was more hawkish rhetoric from Jerome Powell on Monday, indicating that he is open to one or more 50 bps rate hikes. His remarks to the National Association for Business Economics come as the probability of a 50bp increase in May (as opposed to 25bps) climbed above 60%. Meanwhile, the …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 21st, 2022
Greetings, United States: The combination of a strong dollar, rising oil prices, and higher rates will weigh on economic growth. Next, which sectors are facing the greatest supply-chain stress? Emerging Markets: The ruble rebounded last week as Russia made a payment on its US-dollar bond. Commodities: Commodities pulled back from the …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 18th, 2022
Greetings, United States: First, the 30-year mortgage rate is now above 4.5% Commodities: Here is the world’s commodity import exposure to Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. Energy: Crude oil is rebounding. On the other hand, Russian crude oil discount to Brent continues to widen, attracting some buyers. Equities: Fund managers increasingly prefer …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 17th, 2022
Greetings, United States: After the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 bps yesterday, the FOMC reduced the 2022 GDP projection and raised inflation forecasts across the board. In addition, oil price shocks have historically led to lower output caused by contractionary monetary policies. Russia: Will we see a rebound in Russian debt? …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 16th, 2022
Greetings, China: After the worst stock market slump since 2008 (amid a surge in COVID cases), Beijing has had enough. The authorities announced a number of measures to support the markets. Subsequently, Hong Kong and mainland shares jumped in response to the announcement. United States: Financial conditions have tightened sharply this year. According …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 15th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Seven Fed rate hikes for 2022 are now fully priced in. The chart below shows the futures market’s expectations for rate increases (in addition to the 25 bps hike this month). Eurozone: Economists have sharply reduced their GDP forecasts while bumping up inflation projections – a stagflationary trend. As a …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 14th, 2022
Greetings, United States: The 10-year yield is back above 2%. Meanwhile, the Treasury curve keeps flattening. Commodities: Here is last week’s performance across different commodity markets. Energy: US shale oil production and fracking fleet counts are recovering, albeit still below pre-pandemic levels. A wave of exploration and production activity could occur …
