Greetings, Equities: First, Beijing announced additional support for its economy and markets. Although the stimulus would be thought to boost global stocks, improving growth in China could strengthen commodity prices and accelerate inflation. The correlation between commodities and stocks is now at its most negative since the financial crisis. Defensive sectors, such …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 25th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The manufacturing index showed robust factory activity across the US this month. Europe: Tourism activity has been rebounding in recent months. China: The nation’s stock market is facing severe headwinds as the economy slows. Cryptocurrency: The illiquid supply of bitcoin has been rising, which represents that amount of BTC …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 21st, 2022
Greetings, The United States: In the US, goods inflation is expected to moderate moving forward, even as services CPI continues to climb. Equities: In equity markets, earnings estimates have been strengthening despite projections for slower GDP growth. Energy: US crude oil production is nearing 12 million barrels per day. The US Strategic Petroleum …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 20th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Household cash exceeds debt for the first time in 30 years. Economic data has been surprising to the upside in recent weeks, but leading indicators point to slowing economic growth. Europe: Bund futures are experiencing the worst drawdown on record. Norway’s trade surplus has gone vertical as energy prices …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 19th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with a look at the housing market, where mortgage rates hit a multi-year high on Monday, exceeding the 2018 peak. Europe: Economists have been downgrading the 2022 euro-area growth forecasts. Spain is expected to outperform. Equities: In equity markets, margins are expected to stay healthy as business markups …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 18th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Gains in US import prices (excluding petroleum) reached the highest level since the late 1980s. Although, a stronger US dollar should ease import price inflation. Emerging Markets: Stocks tend to perform well after the first Fed rate hike. Commodities: Weaker Chinese imports pose downside risks for commodities. Equities: Growth …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 14th, 2022
Greetings, Administrative Update: As a reminder, The Daily Shot Brief will not be published this Friday. United States: First, the March PPI report bore daunting results, coming in well above consensus estimates. The monthly increase in producer prices (2nd panel below) was the highest in years. Alongside this, the share of CPI items with …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 13th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Starting off, consumer inflation reached a multi-year high after a surge in gasoline prices last month. Emerging Markets: Next, Sri Lanka is defaulting on its foreign debt. Energy: Fitch expects oil prices to average around $90-$100/barrel over the next year as lower exports from Russia reduce global supplies. Equities: Which …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 12th, 2022
Greetings, United States: To begin, inflation expectations in the US remain anchored, with the one- and three-year indicators continuing to diverge. Rates: The recent drawdown in the US Treasury market has been extreme. Equities: In equity markets, historical trends illustrate the consequences beyond the bond market of severe Treasury drawdowns. Eurozone: Economists …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 11th, 2022
Greetings, Rates: In the US, real rates are surging as the 10-year TIPS yield approaches zero. This trend is particularly troubling for growth stocks. Equities: Next, the equity risk premium continues to tighten in the US. Did US indices bottom on March 8th? This chart shows bear market rallies during the 2007-2009 timeframe. …
