The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Supercore inflation remains elevated on a year-over-year basis (2nd panel).

Equities: Tech shares are trading at a substantial premium to the S&P 500.

The Eurozone: Core inflation continues to surge.

Energy: Weak natural gas prices have been pressuring coal.

Credit: Total US bank deposits continue to fall.

Food for Thought: Global app revenues:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The contribution of consumer spending to GDP growth was the lowest it has been since the onset of the pandemic.

How will the latest banking stress impact GDP growth?

Equities: Stock-bond correlations are firmly in negative territory, with concerns about the banking sector and a potential recession overshadowing the monetary policy uncertainty.

The Eurozone: At the Eurozone level, online sales signal weakness ahead for total retail sales.

Canada: The CFIB small/medium-size business index showed an improvement this month.

Asia – Pacific: Australia’s credit growth has been slowing.

Food for Thought: Nearly daily mass shootings in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Soft mortgage applications signal more weakness ahead in pending home sales.

Fewer companies are talking about labor shortages, but more firms are mentioning job cuts.

Equities: Financials’ share prices have massively diverged from bond yields.

The dispersion of performance within sectors and equity factors has been atypical since the beginning of the banking turmoil.

Europe: Sweden hasn’t seen a retail sales shock like this in decades.

China: The PBoC injected liquidity into the market, lowering the front end of the interbank rate curve.

Asia – Pacific: New Zealand’s building permits are down 28% from a year ago.

Food for Thought: Here are US maternal mortality rates by state:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Economists have been upgrading their growth forecasts for this year.

The Eurozone: Selling price expectations point to a rapid decline in Germany’s CPI.

Japan: Japan’s falling birth rate is becoming a pressing problem.

Equities: S&P 500 dividend-paying stocks have outperformed non-dividend payers over the long term with less volatility.

Emerging Markets: Market signals rate hikes in Turkey after the upcoming election.

Credit: Investors remain nervous about European banks.

Global Developments: Risk assets are expensive, according to Oxford Economics.

Food for Thought: Microsoft using its cash to buy Activision Blizzard:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index continues to show slowing factory activity in the region.

The Eurozone: The real M1 money supply is signaling a deep contraction in business activity.

China: Policy easing has taken place within the context of a stronger Chinese yuan.

Equities: Investors are underweight US equities and overweight cash.

Alternatives: Here are recent PE portfolio company bankruptcies by sector.

Credit: After the CS wipeout it will be challenging to rebuild confidence in the AT1 market. This chart shows the yield on Bloomberg’s European CoCo index.

Cryptocurrency: Last week, crypto funds saw the largest inflows since July 2022.

Food for Thought: Lastly, the plant-based meat industry has been facing challenges.

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Orders for automobiles declined last month.

US banks have tightened lending standards in autos and credit cards this quarter, which will weigh on consumers’ ability to spend.

Equities: Corporate insiders have been buying financial stocks over the past two weeks.

Credit: Borrowing surged after the SVB collapse.

Small banks have been selling high-yielding jumbo CDs to compensate for deposit losses.

Europe: Goldman sees further credit tightening ahead for Europe.

Asia – Pacific: Singapore’s industrial production is down sharply on a year-over-year basis.

Food for Thought: Here are US and Russian nuclear arsenals over time:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The FOMC raised its inflation forecasts for both the current year and 2024.

The market is now well below the FOMC’s rate projections.

The United Kingdom: The CPI report surprised to the upside.

Japan: Japanese banks have significantly outperformed since the yield curve control (YCC) band widened in December 2022.

Equities: Bank shares tumbled after Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments on deposit guarantees.

Credit: European financials’ CDS spreads are tightening.

Energy: Gasoline futures jumped as inventories tumbled.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is US production of high-tech equipment:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Homeowner vacancy rates are low.

The Eurozone: The euro-area construction output was above last year’s levels in January.

Emerging Markets: LatAm fund managers have been increasing cash positions.

Equities: Rolling 12- and 24-month blended earnings estimates:

Credit: This chart shows agency MBS securities held by banks. Will we see more forced selling to meet deposit withdrawals?

Commodities: The iron ore rally is fading.

Food for Thought: Electric or gas stove:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The NY Fed’s regional index was well below forecasts, as demand slumped.

The spread between wage growth for “job switchers” and “job stayers” tightened sharply last month, suggesting that demand for labor may be easing.

The Eurozone: Investors are bullish on Eurozone vs. US equities.

China: The World Economics SMI report showed a further acceleration in China’s business activity this month.

Equities: The stock-bond correlation has turned negative since the SVB fiasco.

Credit: European banks’ CDS spreads are not signaling a contagion.

Commodities: The rebound in wheat prices is fading.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are mentions of “ChatGPT” vs. “inflation” on Twitter:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The month-to-date decline has been the biggest since the early 1980s.

Tightening financial conditions over the past few days are equivalent to a significant rate hike.

The United Kingdom: Inflation expectations are easing.

Energy: Oil demand is highly correlated to GDP growth.

Equities: Stock futures in the US and Europe are under pressure after the Credit Suisse deal.

Global Developments: Economies with the most overvalued asset prices and those that rely relatively more on bank financing would likely suffer the greatest GDP decline during a major repricing of risk, according to Oxford Economics.

Food for Thought: EV and battery investments:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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