The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  Gains in rental costs have been slowing on a year-over-year basis.

Subdued demand for cardboard boxes suggests a deceleration in economic activity.

Europe: Switzerland’s central bank continues to reduce liquidity in the financial system.

Energy: The global oil market remains in surplus.

Equities: Market breadth has been weak.

Credit: Investors are now overweight corporate bonds.

Food for Thought: Mass incarceration in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  Household savings remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

Europe: Norway’s CPI report was a shocker.

The market now expects the Fed to complete its rate cuts near 3.5% (in H2 2025).

Emerging Markets: Saudi Arabia’s PIF is expected to become the largest sovereign wealth fund by 2030.

Cryptocurrency: It was a tough week for crypto.

Equities: Deutsche Bank’s aggregate positioning indicator now shows overweight positioning.

Food for Thought: Average hourly wages for US teens:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  The seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims jumped last week.

The bond market is pricing rapid inflation “normalization” over the coming months.

The Eurozone: Revised GDP figures show a mild technical recession in the euro area

Emerging Markets: The Russian ruble is back below pre-war levels.

Commodities: US farm sentiment deteriorated in May due to weak grain prices.

Equities: Retail investors are back in the market.

Food for Thought: Children/teens deaths from motor vehicles and firearms:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States:  Manufacturing confidence has been deteriorating. Here is the sentiment index from the National Association of Manufacturers.

Equities: Small caps (IWM) have sharply outperformed the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the past couple of days.

Canada: Following the surprise 25bp rate hike, the market sees the overnight rate hitting 5.14% by the end of the year.

The Eurozone: This chart shows inflation trajectories projected by inflation swaps.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s broad inflation index declined by most on record (going back to the 1940s). This measure includes consumer, wholesale, and construction prices.

Capital Economics sees EM rate cuts accelerating into next year.

Energy: US oil production hit the highest level since early 2020.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is a look into Tesla’s profit margin:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States:  Investors have been scaling back house purchases.

The United Kingdom: Total construction activity remained in growth mode last month. But housing activity has been crashing.

Asia-Pacific: Tawian’s core inflation eased in May.

Emerging Markets: The Turkish lira is in freefall amid growing indications that policymakers might be reducing their efforts to bolster the currency.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto trading volume ticked higher after the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase.

Equities: Bank shares have been staging a rebound.

Food for Thought: What are your children worried about at school?

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States:   The ISM Services PMI signals stalled business activity growth in May.

The Eurozone: The Euro has consolidated its gains versus the dollar and Swiss franc this year, although its short-term uptrend remains intact versus an equal-weighted basket of interest rate-sensitive currencies such as AUD, CAD, and GBP.

Japan: Household spending in April was below forecasts.

Australia: The RBA caught markets off guard with an unexpected rate hike while also cautioning about further impending increases. Here is the yield curve.

Cryptocurrency:  Bitcoin saw a spike in long liquidations on Monday as the crypto’s price fell below $26K. News of the SEC’s lawsuit against Binance and its CEO unsettled crypto markets.

Equities: Here is a look at market fear indicators.

Food for Thought: Here are states with high cybercrime-related losses:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States:  The Household Survey revealed a decline in job numbers during the month of May. Note that the Household Survey is an alternative measure to the Establishment Survey that provides the official employment figures.

Equities: Globally, capital-scarce companies (energy, shipping, and some LatAm stocks) have outperformed capital-abundant companies (US software and entertainment stocks) over the past year.

Credit: Now that the debt ceiling has been lifted, the supply of T-bills is expected to surge.

The Eurozone: Economic indicators in the Eurozone point to a supportive backdrop for bonds.

Emerging Markets: The market is pricing in a sharp devaluation in the Nigerian naira. Here is the one-month forward contract.

Global Developments: This chart shows year-to-date returns for select currencies.

Food for Thought: Here are penny production costs to the US Treasury:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Here is a look at initial jobless claims (2 charts).

The United Kingdom: Home prices saw the biggest year-over-year decline in years last month.

The Eurozone: Inflation was lower than expected in May. The core CPI has finally peaked.

China: Here is a look at the contributions to China’s inflation.

Commodities: US cattle futures continue to surge.

Equities: This chart shows sector drawdowns from prior highs.

Food for Thought: Projected US energy production:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: US job openings unexpectedly increased in April, climbing above ten million.

Weak credit demand signals slowing CapEx ahead.

Equities: Speculative tech stocks are outperforming again.

Rates: Once the debt ceiling is lifted, rebuilding the US Treasury’s account at the Fed will drain liquidity from the banking system.

Canada: A BoC rate hike is now fully priced in.

Emerging Markets: India’s manufacturing PMI is showing remarkably strong growth.

Commodities: This chart shows the contributions to global lithium production.

Food for Thought: Here are occupational injuries per year by country:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index declined in May but still topped expectations.

Europe: This chart shows enterprise survival rates.

Emerging Markets: Economists have been revising Russian GDP growth higher.

Cryptocurrency: Over the past year, ETH liquidity has been moving away from US exchanges.

Equities: BofA’s private clients have been selling stocks.

Credit: Business loan balances in the banking system have been declining.

Food for Thought: Life expectancy in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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