Greetings, The United States: Credit Suisse sees the core PCE inflation (the Fed’s primary benchmark) approaching 2% this year but not quite getting there. Equity Markets: US stock funds (combined mutual funds and ETFs) continue to see persistent outflows. February was a rough month, with both passive and active products losing capital. Here …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 7th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US exports should be on the rise as the weak dollar helps American firms compete internationally. A trade war, however, could quickly reverse these gains. Equity Markets: February saw significant fund outflows from US domestic equities. International funds, however, continue attracting capital. China: The nation’s households are …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 6th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US commercial construction firms are a bit more cautious on new business in the near-term. These companies continue to struggle with the quality of skilled labor (something we also hear from US small businesses). Equity Markets: Merrill Lynch still sees US investos as being too bullish. However, the …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 5th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Recently, we’ve seen softer consumer spending in the US (see #3 here). And a great deal of recent spending has been food and energy. Equity Markets: This table shows the overlap in top stock holdings by hedge funds and mutual funds. Credit: Large banks are growing deposits …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 1st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: How much of the recent corporate tax reductions will go to the American worker? Estimates vary dramatically. Here is how Morgan Stanley sees the allocation of gains from the tax cuts. Wall Steet is enormously grateful to Uncle Sam this year. Equity Markets: The S&P 500 implied volatility …
The Daily Shot Brief – February 28th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The growth in household wealth in the US has been extremely uneven. The best illustration of this trend is the difference between the median and the mean household net worth. Some economists suggest that the new tax bill will widen this gap further. Equity Markets: Goldman’s “bad case” …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 28th, 2018”
The Daily Shot Brief – February 27th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Economists continue to be amazed at the level of federal government stimulus pumped into the economy at the time when growth is already strong. This is a costly endeavor. Equity Markets: Analysts continue to point to the S&P 500 earning’s yield as still being significantly higher than corporate …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 27th, 2018”
The Daily Shot Brief – February 26th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Most economists see US inflation continue to grind higher. Equity Markets: This chart shows which public teachers’ pension funds own meaningful amounts of firearms stocks. Will they all be under pressure to divest? Energy Markets: Crude oil futures continued to advance on Friday. The Eurozone: Below …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 26th, 2018”
The Daily Shot Brief – February 23rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Many economists continue to point out that the falling US savings rate (chart below) can be explained by higher asset prices (stocks and houses) as well as strong labor markets (second and third charts below). Does this mean that consumer spending growth will remain robust as increasingly “wealthy” households …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 23rd, 2018”
The Daily Shot Brief – February 22nd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Will the new tax law keep some foreign companies from expanding their US operations? Equity Markets: It’s worth noting that at a forward P/E ratio of just over 17x for the S&P 500, valuations do not appear to be stretched. Energy Markets: This chart shows the number …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 22nd, 2018”
