Greetings, The United States: So far, there isn’t much evidence for a sustained wage acceleration in the United States. China: China can counter the US even without tariffs. Here is how the retaliation played out after the nation’s disputes with Japan and South Korea. Rates: US buyers of Treasuries no longer have foreigners or …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 19th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The June Sales Managers’ Index (SMI) points to robust economic activity in the US. We should see this trend reflected in the regional Fed surveys and the national PMI reports later this month. China: The June SMI manufacturing index reflects moderating economic activity. Rates: Foreigners’ ownership of Treasuries …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 18th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Shipping activity in the US remains well above the levels we saw in previous years, pointing to robust economic growth. China: Here is a breakdown of China’s May industrial production. Too much Bitcoin mining going on? Rates: This chart shows the holders of Treasuries (across maturities). Equity …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 15th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the breakdown of US household retirement assets over time. China: Are China’s retail sales much worse than the official figures (see chart)? Rates: The next two charts show the composition of the US fixed income market over time. Equity Markets: Tech shares are outperforming again. …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 14th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: the Committee shifted its rate projections for 2018 and 2019 higher, signaling that another two hikes this year are likely. Here is the “dot plot” over time. China: Bloomberg’s monetary conditions index shows tightening (lower = tighter). Rates: This chart shows the size of some of the largest …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 13th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: An updated economic expansion forecast from John Burns: Asia: The central bank policy rate differential between Asia and the US is narrowing. Rates: Higher bond yields typically boost the Treasury market’s implied volatility. But it’s not the case this time around. Are bond investors too complacent? Equity …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 12th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: What are the risks for the US economy a couple of years from now? The Eurozone: This chart shows the ECB’s bond purchase deviations from the capital key weights. Rates: The voting FOMC members are a bit more hawkish this year. Equity Markets: The S&P 500 has been …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 12th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Consumer loan rates have diverged, with credit cards outpacing other types of debt. Can the auto industry withstand significantly higher car loan rates? The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s export growth slumps. Rates: This chart shows the Fed’s policy rate trajectory implied by the Treasury curve. Equity Markets: Fund …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 8th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Here is an example of the skills gap that has been persistent across the US. The table below shows job openings divided by the number of job searches. These are some of the professions where wages have been improving. The Eurozone: Below are the components of the first-quarter GDP …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 7th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The news flow index which measures trade policy risks remains elevated. The Eurozone: Spain showed a surprising spike in industrial production (although these data can be quite volatile). Rates: US government bond ETFs continue to see inflows. Equity Markets: Mutual funds that focus on US equities are still …
