The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The flash US manufacturing PMI from S&P Global held in contraction territory this month.

The United Kingdom: UK manufacturing activity slipped back into contraction territory this month, according to S&P Global’s PMI report.

China: China-focused equity funds are seeing outflows.

Commodities: Gold fund inflows surged in recent days.

Equities: The S&P 500 has stayed above its 200-day moving average for 246 consecutive sessions.

Food for Thought: The rise in fentanyl-related deaths shifts to the western US.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Existing home sales remained at multi-year lows in September.

Emerging Markets: EM index correlations to China’s CSI 300 Index have collapsed.

Equities: Short interest in the US equity market has steadily declined throughout this month.

Commodities: Here is the evolution of the Brent skew in recent days.

Canada: The BoC delivered a 50 bps rate cut.

The Canadian economy is more sensitive to interest rates than the US, given its elevated household leverage.

Global Developments: Bloomberg’s US dollar index is up 3% month-to-date.

Food for Thought: Defense spending as a percentage of GDP in Europe for 2022 and 2024:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Some economists are expressing concerns about a potential rebound in inflation.

The United Kingdom: The actual mortgage default rate remains historically low.

Japan: The yen continues to sink, with USD/JPY blasting past 152.

Commodities: Iron ore continues to relinquish the gains driven by China’s stimulus measures.

Equities: It’s also not consistent with tightening financial conditions.

Food for Thought: The 2024 US presidential election swing state polling trends:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Rates: Treasury market implied volatility (MOVE) has diverged from realized Treasury vol.

Emerging Markets: Local currency bonds are facing pressure amid the global bond rout.

Here are a couple of examples.

The Eurozone: Germany is probably in recession.

China: Clients are directing China’s domestic banks to sell foreign currency after massive foreign inflows into Chinese stocks, spurred by recent stimulus measures.

Equities: Equity funds continue to see inflows.

Food for Thought: Property losses from Helene and Milton:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Homebuilder sentiment showed some improvement this month.

The United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals and household credit have troughed.

Cryptocurrency: South Korean retail investors’ demand for bitcoin has been soft.

Energy: US natural gas in storage remains above the 5-year average.

Equities: The momentum factor has outperformed substantially this year.

Food for Thought: Manufacturing share of employment by state:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Despite weak consumer sentiment, US household spending remains robust, with last month’s retail sales exceeding expectations.

Europe: Shares of European automakers continue to struggle.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a good week for cryptos with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Litecoin (LTC) outperforming top peers.

Commodities: Gold hit another record high and is now up 40% from a year ago.

Equities: Foreigners bought almost $65 billion of US equities in August.

Food for Thought: US voter turnout by state in the 2020 presidential election:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Energy: Historically, the WTI Crude Oil price recoveries have aligned with troughs in US leading economic indicators (LEIs), especially after recessions. However, the latest bounce in oil prices has stalled as momentum behind LEIs waned.

The United States: Refi applications tumbled.

Emerging Markets: Foreign investors have been pulling out of India’s equity market, partially rotating back into China.

Equities: Here is a look at equity valuations across US and international markets.

Credit: Chapter 11 filings continue to climb.

Europe: French government spending stands out compared to its EU peers.

Poland’s budget deficit has surged this year following increased government spending on defense and efforts to address last month’s historic flooding crisis.

Food for Thought: Data centers’ share of total power consumption:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Lower oil prices signal a pullback in market-based inflation expectations.

The United Kingdom: The claimant count continues to move higher.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s unemployment rate remains exceptionally low.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index remains elevated.

Commodities: The options market sees about a 9% probability of gold exceeding $3,000/oz by the end of the year.

Equities: Bank shares have been rising on robust earnings.

Food for Thought: Countries where people feel safest and least safe walking alone at night:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Equities: Earnings revisions have been soft in the US and globally.

China: Exports surprised to the downside.

The United States: Despite widespread media concerns about the financial strain on US consumers, retail store foot traffic has been trending upward, indicating the potential for strong holiday sales this year.

The Eurozone: Economists have lowered their Eurozone GDP growth forecasts for next year, with weakness driven by softening domestic demand.

Credit: US banks have been using ample reserves to write down bad loans.

Global Developments: A geopolitical event is now seen as the biggest tail risk.

Food for Thought: The 2024 Real Estate Bubble Index:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: This chart shows the U. Michigan consumer expectations index by party affiliation.

Europe: French bond spreads remain elevated, even as the nation prepares for austerity measures.

Asia-Pacific: A stronger yen is putting downward pressure on Japan’s goods CPI.

China: Here is a look at the latest round of stimulus relative to recent history.

India: India’s industrial production dipped below last year’s level in August.

Equities: The CBOE equity put/call ratio dropped to its lowest level since July 2023, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm.

Food for Thought: NFL 50+ yard field goals made by season:

Edited by William Villacis

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